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The end of the calendar year typically tends to see weak diesel prices, but the end of 2025 saw a particularly steep decline. (welcomia/Getty Images)

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Fleet managers can expect U.S. diesel prices to fall slightly in 2026, according to federal government statisticians and analysts, even after a steep decline in December.

However, uncertainty surrounding geopolitical hot spots that are sources of either crude oil or petroleum product exports is again likely to provide a floor for wholesale and retail diesel prices in the United States.

The Energy Information Administration’s average national on-highway diesel price in the week that ended Dec. 22 was $3.54 a gallon, down 6.3 cents compared with a week earlier and up 6.8 cents year over year.

The end of the calendar year typically tends to see weak diesel prices, but the end of 2025 saw a particularly steep decline.

Oklahoma was the first state to see average diesel prices fall below $3, with an average of $2.97 on Dec. 22, according to GasBuddy data.

Only two states in the contiguous United States saw an increase in diesel prices in the month before Christmas — Vermont and Maine.

In the week that ended Nov. 17, the national on-highway average was $3.87. The average fell 8.53% in less than a month.

The week that ended Nov. 17’s average retail price was 10.6% higher than the $3.497 low for 2025 posted in the week that ended May 5 and 10.8% above the $3.491-per-gallon price posted in the same week a year earlier.

Front-month Nymex ultra-low sulfur diesel futures — the benchmark wholesale price in the U.S. — settled at $2.107 on Dec. 26, the lowest close since June 6. Front-month futures settled at $2.701 on Nov. 18.

Lower crude prices will continue to lead to softer retail gasoline and diesel prices in the U.S. in 2026, according to EIA, which expects the U.S. retail diesel price to average $3.67 in 2025, down from $3.76 in 2024, before falling to $3.50 in 2026.

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(U. J. Alexander/Getty Images)

EIA’s most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Dec. 9, forecast the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel retail price will average $3.60 in the first quarter of 2026, $3.41 in Q2 2026, $3.46 in Q3 2026 and $3.53 in the final quarter of 2026.

Crude is the largest component of retail diesel prices, typically accounting for approximately half the overall price, EIA added.

EIA expects the spot Brent crude price to average $55 per barrel in 2026, down from $69 in 2025 and $81 in 2024. Brent is the global benchmark for crude prices.

Front-month Brent futures closed below $62 on Dec. 29 after a post-Christmas pop on prolonged Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations and the ongoing naval blockade of Venezuelan crude exports by the U.S. government.

Bank of America expects Brent to average $60 a barrel and the West Texas Intermediate crude grade to average $57 in 2026. WTI is the U.S. benchmark crude.

Prices across the global crude complex are expected to be rangebound in 2026 due to OPEC production increases, according to Bank of America Commodity and Derivatives Strategist Francisco Blanch. Supplies are set to rise so much that there will be a 2 million barrels-per-day crude surplus, he added.

“I don’t think people are going to notice a difference at the pump” when it comes to 2026 diesel prices in the United States, Blanch told Transport Topics during a Dec. 9 media briefing.

Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure underpinned global diesel prices in 2025, said Blanch.

“Refiners are already making big profits,” Blanch said, and OPEC won’t want to raise refiner profits.

Global crude production is set to average 79.55 million b/d in 2026, according to EIA, an increase of 650,000.

Strength in diesel is contingent on crude oil prices, said Blanch, but diesel prices could increase as a result of any uptick in industrial activity as well as geopolitical skittishness.

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An oil tanker anchored at the dock of an oil refinery on Dec. 18, in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela. (Jesus Vargas/Getty Images)

Bank of America expects global GDP growth to average 3.3% in 2026, compared with 3.4% in 2025.

That said, U.S. imports are falling due to tariffs, noted Blanch, which squeezes any wiggle room if supplies see any kind of relative shortage.

Bank of America also expects freight demand to increase in the coming 12 to 18 months, he added.

Confidence grew as the fourth quarter progressed that an upturn in the freight cycle is approaching more quickly than previously expected.

However, tonnage data is not reflecting that growing confidence and uncertainty remains in both the less-than-truckload and truckload segments of the market of when the rebound will indeed kick off.

Globally, diesel supplies remain relatively tight and geopolitical waters remain difficult to navigate.

As GasBuddy Head of Petroleum Analysis Patrick de Haan told TT in November: “It’s really tricky being able to pick this going forward. There’s almost too many wild cards to be able to tell you how this will play out.”

Ukrainian attacks on refineries and unloading facilities across the length and breadth of Russia, plus an export ban on Russia, have hurt global supply levels.

Meanwhile, the United States’ ongoing blockade of Venezuelan ports also could boost the price of diesel.

Venezuelan exports of heavy crude oil are a major swing factor in global diesel production, Price Futures Group Senior Market Analyst Phil Flynn noted, adding that heavy sour crude supplies are relatively tight.

In addition, on Dec. 16, the EU scrapped an effective ban on combustion engines that would have begun 2035, providing further long-term demand.