Truck Tonnage Nudges 0.2% Higher in November
But Market Remains Weak, Hungers for Sustained Positive Signals
Key Takeaways:
- U.S. trucking activity edged up in November as ATA’s for-hire tonnage index rose 0.2%, but volume remained weak and was down 0.3% from a year earlier.
- ATA said freight markets remain constrained as shipments stay low, capacity exits accelerate and federal enforcement actions add pressure.
- Analysts are split on the 2026 outlook, with some citing tightening spot markets and GDP growth of 4.3% as signs of recovery, while FedEx warned of continued weakness.
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Trucking activity in the U.S. climbed slightly in November, but shipments remain at low levels, according to .
ATA’s seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.2% sequentially after falling 1.9% in October and 0.8% in September, the Dec. 23. November’s ATA index came in at 112.4, up from 112.2 in October. Preliminary figures had shown a 2.1% decrease in October to 111.9.
The index, based on 2015 as 100, nudged 0.3% lower year over year compared with November 2024 after decreasing 1.5% in October. ATA’s calculation is based on a survey of its membership.
ATA’s not seasonally adjusted index, which calculates raw changes in tonnage hauled, equaled 107.3 in November, 10.2% below October’s reading of 119.5.
“November’s tonnage reading continues to point to a constrained freight market despite the small sequential increase,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. “The index was also down from a year earlier, the second straight year-over-year decline.
“In addition to challenging volumes, more capacity appears to be leaving the industry after a prolonged freight downturn and increased government enforcement measures targeting unqualified drivers and noncompliant carriers.”
In recent months, the Trump administration launched crackdowns on English-language proficiency, non-domiciled commercial driver licenses and noncompliant electronic logging devices. The Department of ýland Security also conducted workplace audits on some carriers in California.
Through the first 11 months of 2025, compared with the same period in 2024, tonnage was unchanged.
Meanwhile, for-hire freight shipments as measured by the Cass Freight Index rose 0.7% month on month in November, or 2.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Cass Information Systems.
Shipments fell 7.6% in October, substantially worse than the 5.8% year-to-date trend, putting the index on track for a decline of about 6% in 2025.
Foggy Road Ahead
What the next few months holds in store remains foggy.
Frigid December weather, with three storms through the first half of the month, pinched spot capacity during one of the seasonally strongest periods of the year for demand, boosting spot rates, ACT Research Senior Analyst Tim Denoyer noted Dec. 16.
Truckstop.com and FTR Transportation Intelligence data for the week ending Dec. 19 showed a much stronger spot market than usual. Dry van spot rates posted their best year-over-year comparison since February 2022 and reached their highest level since January 2023, according to truckstop.com.
Meanwhile, flatbed spot rates — a key indicator of industrial and construction industry demand — posted their largest year-over-year increase since mid-2022 and reached their highest level since April 2024. But any confirmation of a sustained market shift — aided by a decline in capacity due to the federal government initiatives — will have to wait until at least January. Also, contract rate cycles typically lag spot rates by about six months.
However, one analyst is confident about the prospects for an upturn.
Bank of America analyst Ken Hoexter recommended investors pay more attention to J.B. Hunt, Knight-Swift Transportation, Schneider and Werner Enterprises as a result of the supply-side catalysts tightening the market in what he called a muted demand environment.
J.B. Hunt, Knight-Swift, Schneider and Werner rank Nos. 3, 7, 10 and 18, respectively, on the Transport Topics Top 100 list of the largest for-hire carriers in North America. The four carriers rank Nos. 2, 1, 7 and 8 in the truckload segment.
Optimism about the speed of a 2026 freight market recovery is waning at FedEx Corp., though, which reports earnings on a later cycle compared with the majority of other publicly listed carriers.
FedEx ranks No. 2 on the for-hire TT100, and its FedEx Freight division is the largest less-than-truckload carrier.
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“Given the sustained weak LTL industry trends, we’ve lowered our FedEx Freight expectations for the second half of the year,” Chief Financial Officer John Dietrich told analysts Dec. 18 when unveiling the carrier’s fiscal second-quarter 2026 earnings.
“We now expect a $300 million decline in adjusted operating income at FedEx Freight compared to the $100 million expectation we shared in September,” Dietrich added. FedEx’s second quarter ended Nov. 30.
That said, there are positive economic indicators appearing, although federal data collection continues to lag.
Gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025, according to an initial estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Dec. 23. Analysts had expected growth of just above 3%. Also, consumer sentiment remains buoyant. The University of Michigan’s December sentiment index rose 1.9 points to 52.9.
