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Complicating outlooks is a lack of certainty on how long a stable environment would need to be in place to instill calm in the marketplace. (halbergman/Getty Images)

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The trucking industry will continue to grapple with market uncertainty in 2026 as the longer-term effects of global tariff policies and other economic issues take broader hold, according to experts.

“Uncertainty is moving into [2026] without any real understanding of why that uncertainty is there, other than just lack of clarity,” said Eric Starks, chairman of . “Everybody is realizing that they are not going to get that type of certainty. The only time that you get that certainty is when something has been enacted and it has stuck.”

President Donald Trump made tariffs a cornerstone of his trade agenda upon taking office in early 2025. Since then he has taken a whipsaw approach to renegotiating global trade deals, injecting unease into international supply chains as well as a domestic trucking industry already 2½ years into a freight downturn. Now that industry is entering 2026 with little long-term clarity on trade policy and other issues.

“The broader thing I’m worried about … is the underlying demand for freight,” Starks said. “If we start seeing more and more layoffs — we start seeing the broader economy starting to ease — that’s going to put additional pressure on trucking. It is not 100% clear how this looks at the moment. I think best case scenario would be a flat market into Q1, but you could see noticeable softening Q1 and into Q2 if we start seeing substantial layoffs and the consumer pulling away.”

Complicating outlooks, Starks noted, is a lack of certainty on how long a stable environment would need to be in place to instill calm in the marketplace. He suspects businesses will remain cautious on investing, especially when it comes to equipment and technology. This could contribute to tougher operating conditions in the first part of next year.

“What kind of shook people up in 2025 was the U.S. government — President Trump — moved the whole window around what the dimensions of these uncertainties might be,” said Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research at .

“Not, ‘Will we put a tariff of 10% on some aluminum products?’ It’s like, ‘We’re going to put a tariff of 145% on everything from China and 20% from everything everywhere.’ ”

Rogers suspects the pace and manner applied to implementation of tariff policies has propelled shock waves felt by supply chain decision-makers. He also recalled how such uncertainty was once a relatively small factor for the broader economy or trade policy landscape.

“The story of tariffs isn’t over yet,” Rogers said. “We still have to have a decision from the Supreme Court about the [International Emergency Economic Powers Act] tariffs that the president has implemented — whether they’re legal. And if they’re not, what will replace them? There’s a lot of these national security tariff reviews still going on covering electronics, medical supplies, machinery, critical minerals.”

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(Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

S&P Global in a 2026 outlook cited these legal challenges surrounding Trump’s use of IEEPA in setting tariffs, specifically as it relates to implementation of Section 232 duties. The Section 232 provision of the Trade Expansion Act empowers the use of levies to address imports that are deemed a threat to national security. Trump has used this rule as the basis for most of his tariffs.

But this legal interpretation has been challenged, with ongoing cases working their way through the courts.

Legal determinations are expected to be finalized in early 2026.

Trade policy that has nothing to do with tariffs also is expected to remain in flux as 2026 arrives, Rogers noted.

“The big one that we are watching, obviously, is the renegotiation of the [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement],” he said. “That’s going to be going on throughout next year and should be completed ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. But I wouldn’t take that for granted. And then we have other deals being signed elsewhere in the world.”

Rule Crackdown Shrinks Capacity

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s stepped-up enforcement of English-language proficiency for truck drivers and tightened scrutiny on issuance of non-domiciled commercial driver licenses threatens long-term removal of capacity from the market. While safety stands at the forefront of the effort, the net result could be a smaller driver pool that puts upward pressure on freight rates, said Jason Seidl, managing director at the investment banking company .

“This is something that’s probably good for the industry overall — and good for the average American — if you’re making the road safer,” said Seidl. “But when you look at pricing on the truckload side — at least for now — the beginning of a move up would probably be a move up in pricing based on capacity coming out.”

In terms of historic norms, Seidl notes that over-the-road trucking demand tends to be softer following the holiday season. Nearer-term, he says the industry is more focused on the normal seasonal pickup in freight demand that generally follows the Lunar New Year in springtime.

“That’ll give us an idea about how much capacity is coming out the marketplace,” Seidl said. “Right now, when you look at the areas of tightness that we have … like California, around Chicago, and around Texas; these are the areas that a lot of the non-domiciled drivers have tended to proliferate over the years.

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(shaunl/Getty Images)

“The government is coming after capacity at a rate that I’ve never seen in over 30 years in the industry.” Seidl added. “If we have a capacity-led improvement in rates, and that is followed by [the Trump administration] trying to jump-start the economy … then the market can get really interesting, potentially.”

is likewise expecting some freight volume normalization in 2026, and also expects it will arrive gradually as companies adjust to tariffs and rethink their supply chain strategies.

“It will take time for these changes to fully play out,” said Jeff Pape, general manager of transportation at U.S. Bank Corporate Payment Systems. “Capacity could tighten further, especially among smaller carriers, as the market returns to a more steady state.”

Pape also said fleets that embrace artificial intelligence could wring efficiencies from their operations in the year ahead.

“One of the most significant trends is the acceleration of technology adoption, especially around AI and automation,” he said. “We’re seeing both shippers and carriers start using AI for practical applications.” He cited document intelligence, fraud mitigation and automated manual processes among examples, and said AI tools are helping fleets identify trends, reduce errors and free up resources for more strategic work. He noted that while most organizations are still in the early stages of AI deployment, the pace of adoption is increasing as the technology becomes more top of mind for industry leaders.

Industry Cooperation

Pape said that while the volatility of 2025 was fueled by a convergence of economic and regulatory factors, he is optimistic that newfound collaboration will help the industry navigate the year ahead.

“Another important shift is the way shippers and carriers are working together,” Pape said. “There’s a much greater emphasis on collaboration and transparency, with both sides leveraging data and technology to make smarter, faster decisions. Instead of focusing solely on price, the conversation is increasingly about building long-term partnerships and finding ways to succeed together in a changing environment.”

“We’ve operated in this era of completely shifting sands all year,” added Ken Adamo, chief of analytics at . “Next year will be when the brass tacks hits of, ‘What does this actually mean for shipping volumes?’ ”

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