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The U.S. sees domestic crude production declining next year for the first time since 2021 in a blow to President Donald Trump’s push for American energy dominance.

OPEC forecast another year of steady oil demand growth, driven by India and China, in its first detailed assessment of 2026.

Forecasts for trucking’s main fuel, which alongside heating oil is part of the distillate portion of the crude barrel, softened over the past month even as retail prices edged higher.

Despite this minor uptick, diesel remains significantly cheaper than a year ago.

U.S. oil demand growth is forecast to plateau this year, in the latest bearish indicator for the market, according to the Energy Information Administration.

The national average diesel price rose 5.2 cents to $3.865 in its fourth consecutive increase, according to Energy Information Administration data released July 8.

The national average price for a gallon of diesel tumbled 9.6 cents — its largest drop of the year — to reach $3.922,  according to Energy Information Administration data released May 8.

The national average price for diesel slipped 3.5 cents to $4.247 a gallon, according to Energy Information Administration data released March 13.

The national average price for diesel finished February with a flourish, dropping 8.2 cents a gallon to reach $4.294, according to Energy Information Administration data released Feb. 27.

The national average price of diesel continued to dive, shedding 6.8 cents to settle at $4.376 a gallon, according to Energy Information Administration data released Feb. 21.