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GenLogs data shows a 5% drop in carriers plying their trade in the week that ended Nov. 5 and a decrease of 7.3% between Oct. 1 and Oct. 31. (International)

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Confidence has grown in recent weeks that an upturn in the freight cycle is approaching more quickly than previously expected.

Data provided to Transport Topics shows an acceleration in carrier capacity exits — indicating a tightening of the market is edging closer — and observers see a number of macroeconomic dominoes starting to fall into place.

As recently as a couple of months ago, executives expected a rough ride over the coming 12-18 months, while tonnage data and the suggested a regression after positive signs in the summer.

But data shows a 5% drop in carriers plying their trade in the week that ended Nov. 5 and a decrease of 7.3% between Oct. 1 and Oct. 31.

GenLogs tracks unique Department of Transportation numbers observed on the roads each day through a nationwide network of cameras deployed along major interstates and highways.

The cameras track truck traffic as they pass by, and artificial intelligence is used to extract unique identifiers in real time such as the DOT/MC numbers, equipment type or logos.

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GenLogs CEO Ryan Joyce told TT the data indicated a decrease in the number of smaller unit carriers with 1-10 power units, as unique truck numbers show a 0.83% dip in the month of October.

Also, national shipment volume contracted 2.9% in the third quarter of 2025, according to the latest , but shipper spending increased.

“Shippers paid more to move less freight in the third quarter — a clear signal that industry capacity is exiting. While higher fuel prices played a role, it doesn’t fully explain the increase in spending,” said Bobby Holland, U.S. Bank director of freight business analytics.

And a by Truckstop.com and Bloomberg Intelligence signaled greater optimism among owner-operators or small fleets.

“Many believe the bottom may be near in terms of volumes, and are cautiously preparing for better days ahead,” said Todd Markusic, customer insights manager at Truckstop.com, although he added that rate expectations are less sunny.

“The industry’s current conditions are testing every business, especially small fleets,” Markusic said. “But carriers are adapting and showing resiliency.”

Truckstop.com and Bloomberg Intelligence surveyed 211 carriers, of which 80% were owner-operators or small fleets with five or fewer trucks.

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(shaunl/Getty Images)

Meanwhile, macroeconomic factors are turning.

ArcBest CEO-elect Seth Runser said Oct. 5 that the carrier was not expecting a softer-than-normal early October to continue into the first quarter of 2026, citing the expected resolution of the federal government shutdown, greater clarity over tariffs and a growing impact from recent Federal Reserve interest rate reductions.

Fort Smith, Ark.-based ArcBest ranks No. 13 on the Transport Topics Top 100 list of the largest for-hire carriers in North America and No. 8 in the less-than-truckload segment.

“The ingredients for recovery are finally assembling — U.S.-China deal, tariff clarity emerging, rate cuts continuing — but the Thanksgiving feast isn’t on the table yet. Expect 3-6 months of prep work (inventory normalization, SNAP/labor headwinds) before the meal is served,” KCH Transportation noted in its November market update.

“2026 isn’t guaranteed to be the feast (timing uncertain), but the table is being set. The ingredients are being assembled. The foundation is being laid. And when it’s time to serve, there won’t be enough capacity to quickly meet the demand — because we spent 2025 clearing out the operators who couldn’t afford to survive the prep work,” added KCH, which ranks No. 68 on the TT Top 100 list of the largest freight brokers in North America.

In addition, wariness over when the freight rate recession could end is increasingly convincing shippers to move up their bid cycles, a senior executive at J.B. Hunt said in the final week of October.

Customers are telling J.B. Hunt it has been a shipper’s market for longer than any of them expected, but they expect change in the market soon, Director of Intermodal Pricing Amy Horn told attendees of the American Trucking Associations 2025 Management Conference and Exhibition.

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(Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg)

J.B. Hunt ranks No. 3 on the for-hire TT100, No. 1 in the intermodal sector and No. 2 among truckload/dedicated carriers.

Freight cycles typically last 14 to 15 months, but the current downswing has lasted for double that.

However, rates are steady. The average rate for DAT Freight & Analytics’ top 50 dry van linehaul lanes by load volume remained unchanged for a third week, averaging $2 per mile and 28 cents higher than the national seven-day rolling average spot rate, Principal Analyst Dean Croke wrote Nov. 4.

The national seven-day rolling average for refrigerated carriers saw a 2-cent decrease, settling at $2.08 per mile, he added.

That said, there may be a short-term headwind for reefer carriers, noted Croke and KCH, in the form of the suspension of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits by the Trump administration.

The SNAP program helps feed 42 million Americans. SNAP recipients spend 20% more on groceries than average. SNAP shoppers represent between 10% and 11% of total retail grocery spending.

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