Daimler Truck Cuts Guidance, Citing North America Uncertainty
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Daimler Truck cut its 2025 global and North American truck sales guidance as a result of the weak U.S. freight market environment and trade policy uncertainty.
The truck maker also reined in its worldwide earnings expectations on the back of how the first quarter of 2025 progressed in Europe for Mercedes-Benz Trucks, the events of recent weeks and expectations for the coming months.
Freightliner and Western Star’s parent group did, however, say that U.S. sales to smaller fleet customers provided some support during a turbulent first three months of the year and in April.
Globally, Daimler Truck expects to sell between 430,000 and 460,000 trucks and buses in 2025, compared with prior expectations in a 460,000-480,000 range, the German company said in an earnings report released May 13.
In North America, the parent company of Daimler Truck North America now expects overall heavy-duty Class 8 sales in a range of 260,000 to 290,000 vehicles, compared with previous expectations in a 280,000–320,000 trucks range.
DTNA is forecast to sell 155,000 to 175,000 trucks in 2025 across all classes, down from a 180,000 to 200,000 range prior to the Trump administration introducing a variety of tariffs and the reciprocal actions of its peers.
Daimler Truck said April 8 that DTNA sold 38,992 trucks and buses in Q1, a decrease of 16% compared with 46,229 vehicles in the same period in 2024. Alongside Freightliner and Western Star, DTNA is the umbrella group for Thomas Built Buses and Freightliner Custom Chassis.
Sales in just the U.S. totaled 33,399 trucks in the most recent three-month period, down 15% compared with 39,263 in the year-ago period, according to a fact book issued by the parent company May 13.
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Portland, Ore.-based DTNA booked 31,740 new truck and bus orders in Q1, a 29% dive compared with 44,650 in the same period a year earlier.
DTNA’s North American Class 8 truck market share in Q1 was 41.9%, compared with 42.2% a year earlier, and an average of 39.8% across all of 2024.
The division’s North American Classes 6-7 truck market share in Q1 was 31.7%, compared with 35.2% a year earlier, and an average of 34.1% across all of 2024.
Sales may have slumped alongside those of DTNA’s peers, but Daimler Truck Chief Financial Officer Eva Scherer was relatively upbeat about the quarter.
“We benefited from an extraordinarily favorable customer mix, with more sales to smaller fleet customers and a lower share of mega fleets. We also had a strong product mix with more heavy-duty on-highway and vocational trucks and fewer medium-duty trucks,” Scherer said during an analyst conference call May 14.
The fifth-generation Freightliner Cascadia.The brand leads the U.S. truck market, selling around 90,000 vehicles annually. (Daimler Truck North America)
Scherer was more circumspect about the orders and the outlook.
“I guess everybody has seen also the ACT order report on April orders in the market, and that has been extremely low,” she said, referencing ACT Research preliminary data showing Class 8 orders decreased 52.1% year over year to 7,600 units from 15,850. Orders also fell 53.9% compared with 16,500 trucks in March.
“Over the last couple weeks that momentum has really stalled with many customers taking a wait-and-see approach. So, the question is now, will we get back to the decent levels of [Q1]?” Scherer said. “We do believe that despite uncertainties, the market demand is still there.”
Scherer noted that smaller fleets continue to place orders despite market uncertainty. She explained that these companies are buying trucks now because many of their customers remain unaffected by tariffs or economic concerns. Additionally, some fleets are replacing older equipment they were unable to obtain during previous years when manufacturing capacity was constrained.
“We do believe there is a possibility … that orders will pick up in the course of [the second quarter of the year]. When we look now at the news flow over the last couple days with the temporary agreement that the U.S. and China have reached on tariffs, that could also give positive impulses in that regard. But, of course, [it is] a bit early to tell, and that hasn’t obviously translated into orders just yet,” Scherer added.
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Reduced orders and a cloudy outlook for the remainder of 2025 in North America due to the tariffs meant Daimler Truck cut its guidance for adjusted earnings before interest and taxation to a range of between 5% lower and 5% higher compared with 2024 from earlier guidance of a 5%-15% increase.
Analysts quizzed Scherer on the impact on DTNA of the Section 232 tariffs on aluminum and steel and reciprocal tariffs on earnings plus North American truck production.
The executive said during a May 14 media question-and-answer session that the impact on North American production would be minimal, although she said the truck maker does ship some engine parts from Germany to the U.S. and some engine blocks are sent from South Africa.
Scherer said the biggest impact of the tariffs would likely be a continued reluctance on the part of fleets to purchase new trucks.
“We have labor agreements in place that enable us to ramp down capacity and also reduce wages as a part of that. And, in particular, in Mexico, we are very flexible,” said the CFO.
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“So, we have not been in a position yet where we had to release people … but we have not because so far, we’re managing it well with having shutdown days, and that will also get us well through [Q2],” Scherer said.
“Of course, should orders not pick up now in the next couple of weeks, then we will also look at further adjusting capacities in the second half,” she added.
Daimler Truck posted an $894.2 million profit in Q1, down 6% compared with $947.9 million in the year-ago period.
Globally, the company’s Q1 vehicle sales totaled 99,812 trucks and buses, down 8% compared with 108,911 vehicles a year earlier.
Mercedes-Benz Trucks sold 33,446 vehicles in Q1, a decrease of 18% from 40,838 in the same period 12 months earlier.
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