Emission Rules in Flux; Truck Makers Stay the Course
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Alterations to federal emission regulations for Class 8 trucks are likely in the coming months, but the timeline for those changes is unclear.
What’s clear is the uncertainty is hurting demand for trucks, observers say. Meanwhile, truck manufacturers are convinced they won’t need to change their near-term product plans or timelines.
In totality, truck manufacturers spend years planning upgrades to engines and aftertreatment systems for their products. Performance, fuel efficiency and emission enhancements require substantial investment and preparation. Also, stricter emission regulations for Class 8 engine truck engines historically take time to develop.
For example, preparations for model-year 2004 engines began as early as 1995, with a statement of principles signed by the Environmental Protection Agency, the California Air Resources Board and heavy-duty truck engine manufacturers. EPA adopted the new standards as early as 1997, and then stiffer nonmethane hydrocarbon, nitrogen oxide and particulate matter standards by 2001 for model-year 2007 and later engines.
Transport Topics
So, proposed rollbacks of the Biden administration regulations for calendar year 2027 engines and model-year 2028 chassis break with precedent.
announced March 12 that the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards for Heavy-Duty Vehicles — colloquially known as GHG3 — would be reconsidered. Zeldin also said the 2022 Heavy-Duty Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) rule would be re-evaluated. GHG3 targets carbon dioxide emissions, in effect requiring a certain percentage of trucks manufacturered to be zero emissions.
The 2027 NOx standard as it currently stands drops to 35 milligrams per horsepower-hour from 200 mg/horsepower-hour.
Zeldin cited regulatory and compliance costs plus the impact on the cost of living in the U.S., also arguing “coercive pressure” on truck makers to build zero-emission trucks was “fundamentally distorting the market.”
Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin announced on March 12 that GHG3 standards would be reconsidered. (EPA via YouTube)
The announcements were part of a cluster of promised regulatory rollbacks by the Trump administration.
Deep Dive
►Emission Rules in Flux; Truck Makers Stay the Course
►Trucking Industry Awaits Trump Regulatory Shift
►Uncertainty Dominates Pre-Buy Discussions Ahead of 2027
So far, however, EPA has yet to advance any notice of proposed rulemaking, typically the first step toward change. An EPA spokeswoman told Transport Topics on April 28: “We are working expeditiously on these actions.”
Members of the House of Representatives and Senate also introduced measures to reopen the statute book.
Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) on Feb. 25 introduced S. 71, the Transportation Freedom Act. It was assigned to the Committee on Finance the same day, along with a companion bill that was introduced in the House more recently. Both bills would require EPA to develop new GHG3 standards that reflect achievable technological advancements based on affordability and market readiness, and rely on evidence from industry market data and expert feasibility assessments.
Moreno’s bill also would tweak the Clean Air Act, adding a paragraph nixing any further vehicle emission rule waivers for states outside of federal rules.
Targeting California, the bill also would roll back earlier waivers, including for the Golden State’s and Omnibus NOx rules. The Senate bill is co-sponsored by Sens. Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.), Jim Banks (R-Ind.) and Jim Justice (R-W.Va.).
But the upper chamber’s finance committee has yet to announce any scheduled discussions or hearings, a spokesman for Banks confirmed April 24. The companion House bill also awaits committee scrutiny.
Environmental Protection Agency
Meanwhile, Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-Idaho) introduced Joint Resolution 26 in the House on Jan. 22 that would nullify GHG3. It was referred to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce on Jan. 22. The committee has yet to make any official progress on the resolution.
On Feb. 14, Zeldin also said EPA would ask Congress to review waivers for CARB’s Omnibus and ACT regulations.
The ACT regulation is a zero-emission vehicle sales requirement for truck makers. The proposals require EPA to grant CARB a waiver of federal rules to proceed.
CARB’s Omnibus regulation aims to reduce NOx emissions by 75% and particulate matter by 50% from heavy-duty on-road engines for engine model years 2024 through 2026. The reductions are compared with current EPA standards.
In January, CARB backed away from seeking a waiver for its Advanced Clean Fleets rule, but left the ACT and Omnibus NOx rules in place.
The House did away with the waivers April 30. The waiver revocations must now be approved by the Senate.
Moving Forward
Time is not abundant for the Trump administration and its allies in the House and Senate. However, control of the U.S. executive, legislative and judicial branches is expected to make the process a lot easier.
“GHG3 will eventually cease to exist in its current form. Rulemaking is typically a slow process, so it will be some time before we know just what the new standards will be. But we can certainly expect less stringency as the aim of the Trump administration is to undo ‘EV mandates,’ ” according to ACT Research analyst Lydia Vieth.
[April North America Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK PLUS Update] - Reductions in Regulatory Stringency Will Significantly Impact ZEV Adoption
Read more from the update here: — ACT Research (@actresearch)
Whether the NOx rule remains in its current form is less clear.
“We consider it ‘stickier’ than GHG3. That is, it has been finalized longer, and is less offensive to its detractors, than GHG3, so at this point it has a higher likelihood of survival,” Vieth said in a synopsis of where the emission regulations stand. “If this administration does decide to make changes to the EPA Low NOx rule, we would expect those changes to come in the form of amending the new warranty and useful life standards.”
The Biden-era regulations have been slammed repeatedly as unworkable by many trucking industry stakeholders, who argue the infrastructure for low-emission vehicles is years away from being ready and the new trucks required are too expensive. Those critics welcomed Zeldin’s proposals.
“We commend President Trump and EPA Administrator Zeldin for restoring common sense to our nation’s environmental laws and demonstrating bold leadership on this critical issue that affects not only the 8.5 million men and women who work in trucking, but all Americans,” said.
“GHG3 in its current form is unachievable given the state of battery-electric technology and the sheer lack of charging infrastructure. This rule has been an albatross for the trucking industry, threatening to reduce equipment availability, increase costs for businesses and consumers, and cause major supply chain disruptions,” he said.
“GHG3 in its current form is unachievable given the state of battery-electric technology and the sheer lack of charging infrastructure," says ATA's Spear. (SunJae Smith for American Trucking Associations)
“It is critically important that the federal government set realistic standards with achievable targets and timelines,” Spear continued, adding the association looks forward to working with the Trump administration going forward.
CEO Mike Stanton added: “Truck dealers have extremely limited product availability right now due to overburdensome EV mandates that failed to recognize the particular hurdles involved with early-stage deployment of zero-emission technology, including higher prices, a lack of charging infrastructure and limited operational capability.” NADA is the umbrella organization for the National Association of Truck Dealers.
Impact on Trucking
What the changes will be is still unclear. However, fleet owners are involved in ongoing discussions.
The process is at the fact-gathering stage and the data is being synthesized, Paul Rosa, Penske Truck Leasing senior vice president of procurement and fleet planning, told TT.
“We’re trying to provide sound guidance and trying to give real-world experience,” Rosa said. “It’s going to take a little bit to get through that.”
What needs deliberating is what the industry can handle, he said.
Best known as a leasing and rental specialist, Penske operates more than 428,000 vehicles. Penske also is a charter member of Powering America’s Commercial Transportation, a truck maker-led alternative-fuel infrastructure lobbying coalition.
Penske electric vehicles charge at a station. (Penske)
OEMs expect to meet the regulatory requirements no matter how stringent they may be.
“We are committed to adhering to the requirements established by the EPA and will continue to develop our product strategy in alignment with these standards,” a Daimler Truck North America spokesperson told TT in an email.
DTNA — which owns Class 8 truck brands Freightliner and Western Star — sold 40.8% of the new trucks bought in the U.S. in 2024, according to Wards Intelligence data.
“In 2027, DTNA will offer a complete range of EPA-compliant heavy-duty engines, including the Detroit DD13, DD15 and DD16 models. All previously communicated plans remain unchanged,” the spokesperson said in an emailed response to TT questions in March. “DTNA remains committed to providing a robust lineup of engines that meet both GHG and NOx regulations.”
Join us as we take a closer look at the powertrains available from Kenworth that we showcased at ACT Expo. From clean diesel to natural gas to battery electric - we have a Truck and a Powertrain for Every Job. — Kenworth Truck Co. (@KenworthTruckCo)
“Kenworth’s product portfolio complies with EPA 2027 Greenhouse Gas Regulations, and our product plans will not change unless regulation law is changed. Knowing the standards are still (by law) slated to change in 2027, our products will meet those standards and will be ready in the event any delays are realized,” Director of Marketing Kyle Kimball told TT in mid-March.
“That said, and given the time frame needed for powertrain development, we plan for multiple outcomes and are prepared to comply with every regulatory scenario,” Kimball added.
Volvo Group, parent company of Volvo Trucks North America and Mack Trucks, concurred. A spokesperson said the two brands would comply with the requirements of the regulatory landscape.
Cummins, whose engines are options across a number of models at various truck makers, said the Columbus, Ind.-based company would continue to monitor and engage in industry and regulatory activity with EPA.
Truck Orders Wane in March
However, OEMs’ bottom line is hurting due to the uncertainty surrounding the emission regulations alongside other Trump administration initiatives.
Preliminary data on March Class 8 truck orders showed an 8.3% year-over-year decrease to 16,000 units and fell 12.6% sequentially compared with February, according to ACT.
FTR Transportation Intelligence ascertained the decline was even steeper, reporting that Class 8 net orders for the final month of the first quarter fell 22% year over year to 15,700 units, and 14% compared with February. FTR tallies a seven-year average of 24,760 for March.
Class 8 sales through Q1 fell 9.4% to 50,627 units from 55,862 in the year-ago period, according to Wards data.
If the entire emission standard is scrapped, Melius Research Founding Partner Rob Wertheimer expects second half of 2025 and 2026 Class 8 sales to fall between 10% and 15% compared with current estimates.
ACT has cut its Class 8 demand expectations twice in consecutive months. In March, analysts at the research house cut their forecast by about 8% to 288,800 from 316,500 tractors and trucks in February. In April, the total was revised to 255,100.
Sweeping Layoffs in Trucking Industry
OEMs have taken action in response to the drastic cuts in analyst prognostications.
Volvo Group’s North American truck operations are set to lay off about 1,000 employees, CEO Martin Lundstedt said April 23.
Lundstedt made the announcement in the final moments of the truck and bus maker’s Q1 earnings call, revealing an additional 200 or so manufacturing jobs would be cut at VTNA and Mack due to weak demand and economic uncertainty.
TT previously reported that as many as 800 staff were set to be laid off at Volvo Group’s manufacturing facilities in Virginia, Pennsylvania and Maryland.
Lisle, Ill.-based International Motors cut 900 jobs at its heavy-duty truck manufacturing plant in Escobedo, Mexico, due to weak demand conditions and the ongoing uncertainty, parent company Traton Group revealed April 28 when announcing the truck maker’s Q1 earnings.
International CEO Carlbaum has said that layoffs would be limited to the company's operations in Mexico (International Motors)
However, International CEO Mathias Carlbaum told TT on the sidelines of the 2025 Advanced Clean Transportation Expo there would be no U.S. plant layoffs in the coming months after the Mexican job losses.
Prospects for orders and sales also are hurting due to upcoming price rises as a result of steel, rubber and auto parts tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
VTNA and Mack in March warned customers of May price hikes for new vehicles after a 25% tariff on U.S. imports of steel and aluminum became effective.
Any additional costs the two truck makers incur as a result of raw material and other recently introduced tariffs also will be passed on to customers, a spokesman said.
Replacement truck tire prices, too, are set to rise in the U.S. as a result of trade policies. At least two global tire manufacturers hiked their replacement tire prices May 1.
All of this may delay any long-awaited rebound in the freight environment, particularly with economic f
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