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American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello warns that businesses remain hamstrung by trade policy uncertainty, and said the true impact of tariffs has barely been felt.

Customers are telling J.B. Hunt it has been a shipper’s market for longer than any of them expected, but they expect change in the market soon, said Director of Intermodal Pricing Amy Horn.

"September’s tonnage level was essentially the same as in September 2023, underscoring the tough freight market over the last few years,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello.

The ATA For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index slipped 0.4% sequentially to 113.3 from 113.8 in May. The index also decreased 0.1% from the same time last year.

Economists at Goldman Sachs have raised their assessment of the odds the U.S. will experience a recession to 45% from 35% following President Donald Trump's tariffs announcement April 2.

American Trucking Associations' freight volume index posts second straight year-over-year gain. ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said, "Growing optimism for the truck freight market after a two-year recession.”   

Trucking is emerging from a difficult period, and the headwinds that have plagued the industry are beginning to weaken as freight volumes improve and capacity leaves the market.

“People are looking at the prices of things and freaking out,” Bob Costello said Feb. 20 at the 2025 Recruitment & Retention Conference in Nashville.

American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello on Oct. 14 highlighted how the freight market is set to slowly improve as equipment and demand rebalance. 

Even with a stronger-than-expected 2.9% fourth quarter increase in gross domestic product, two  prominent freight transportation economists say the threat of a recession will persist this year.