September Truck Tonnage Slips After Best Month Since 2023
ATA’s For-Hire Volume Index Declines 0.9% to 114.2
Key Takeaways:
- U.S. freight tonnage fell 0.9% in September after August’s near two-year high, according to American Trucking Associations data released Oct. 21.
- Analysts said the decline reflects a sluggish freight market tied to high interest rates, uneven consumer spending and limited economic data amid a government shutdown.
- Truckload rates inched higher across all equipment types while contract rates stayed mostly flat, suggesting demand may have stabilized heading into the holiday quarter.
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The trucking industry experienced a sequential loss in freight tonnage during September after its best month in nearly two years, .
The ATA For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index declined 0.9% to 114.2 from 115.3 in August. But the index also increased 0.8% from the same time last year. The not seasonally adjusted results decreased 2.6% sequentially to 114.7. Year to date, tonnage was up 0.2%.
“Tonnage levels remain choppy, but they are up 2.1% since hitting a low in January,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Compared to the high three years earlier, however, truck tonnage is still off by 3.9%. In fact, September’s tonnage level was essentially the same as in September 2023, underscoring the tough freight market over the last few years.”
(American Trucking Associations)
The that September shipments decreased 5.4% year over year to 1.04 from 1.1. The Logistics Managers’ Index registered at 57.4 for the month, compared with 59.3 in August. This marked the lowest reading for the overall index since March, driven by a declining rate of growth across the majority of its submetrics.
“We didn’t get to see the retail sales for September,” said Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University. “We didn’t get to see the consumption numbers for September, that will come out in late October, but we won’t get to see them because of the government shutdown. Those agencies are closed. We didn’t get to see the employment report, which would’ve given us some idea about September hiring.”
Dhawan noted that available numbers point to a bifurcated economy. He has seen people at lower income levels prioritize economizing. But at the same time, the stock market has been doing well, there haven’t been mass layoffs and business travel continues.
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“People with assets in the upper income levels are doing fine,” Dhawan said. “But when you come down to the lower level, [there’s] people who depend on paycheck-to-paycheck. That’s what’s showing up in the Social Security tax collections, that there has been a weakness over there, both in terms of hiring, as well as the amount of hours worked.”
The Port of Los Angeles closed its busiest quarter on record in September. But that came amid signs activity was slowing, as the port processed 7.5% fewer containers year over year during the month at 883,053 units. The Port of Long Beach reported volume decreased 3.9% to 797,537. Port of Oakland containers declined 6.6% to 178,942.
“The ports have been seesawing with every [tariff] deadline,” Dhawan said. “August was one deadline with China, June was another deadline, so every time there is a deadline, the businesses front-run the tariffs by bringing in supply. So that’s what happened when you saw those big jumps in late June, July, that was the August deadline.”
DAT Freight & Analytics noted in a report that a dip in freight volume did little to move truckload rates during September, though truckload volume typically declines sequentially in the month. The DAT Truckload Volume Index for dry van loads showed a 2% loss year over year to 234. Refrigerated trailers increased 2% to 184. Flatbed increased 9% to 307.
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“The month as a whole was pretty lackluster,” said Ken Adamo, chief of analytics at DAT. “It’s the last month of the quarter, it’s the last quarter before we get into all the retail happenings in Q4, and generally, just with the way things fell this year with Labor Day, it just made for a pretty interesting month. But … the month built week by week as we got into the last half.”
Adamo noted that volume was lower than expected due to interest rates and consumer confidence hindering freight demand. that the national average spot rates increased for all three equipment types from August. Spot van increased 2 cents to $2.05 per mile, reefer rose 3 cents to $2.44 and flatbed increased 1 cent to $2.50.
“We expected a little bit more, but it is always good to get a little bit of positive movement,” Adamo said. “At this point, you’ve got to believe that rates have bottomed out and have stayed there for the better part of a year and a half. I don’t think there’s really any fear of rates going back down. The really big question, though, is when will we start to see them go back up?”
DAT also found that contract rates showed modest and mixed movement. Contract van was unchanged at $2.42 per mile, reefer increased 2 cents to $2.76 and flatbed declined 2 cents to $3.06.
“It’s coming up on almost two years of no movement in the contract market,” Adamo said. “So, I can’t say that I was surprised, but I think, to the extent that it continues to stay flat, in and of itself, surprised me.”
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