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Crude oil storage tanks at an oil refinery in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabi. One OPEC official says there’s divergence between group co-leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia on how much to hike oil production in November. (Simon Dawson/Bloomberg)

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OPEC+ nations are trying to reach consensus on how to adjust their oil production next month, with either a modest or more substantial supply increase possible, delegates said.

Preliminary discussions before the group meets Oct. 5 swayed between two broad options for November output. One delegate said the base case is a repeat of this month’s marginal 137,000 barrels-a-day hike. However, boosting by two or more times that amount is also possible, according to another. All the people asked not to be identified as the talks are private.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are negotiating how to return another layer of halted production — about 1.65 million barrels a day in total — straight after swiftly restoring a previous tranche despite warnings of an impending oil surplus. Prices are trading near a four-month low.

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It’s unclear where the exact differences in position lie, though one official said there’s divergence between group co-leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia. Recently, the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates have pressed to add barrels as they seek to reclaim market share, while in one meeting, Russia led a faction that opposed an accelerated increase.

One delegate said that OPEC+ is being vigilant about potential supply losses from Russia. Moscow has been contending with Ukrainian drone strikes on its oil refineries and port constraints, in addition to international sanctions following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of his neighbor.

Another said that while a 137,000 boost is possible, an increase similar to the bumper additions made this summer has been floated, when OPEC+ added 411,000 barrels a day and then 548,000 per day.

Earlier this week, one delegate said the alliance would examine adding the remainder of the current tranche in three monthly installments of 500,000 barrels a day. The OPEC secretariat later said in a social media post that it wasn’t planning a boost of that magnitude.

There could be a political calculus at play. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman heads to Washington next month to meet with President Donald Trump, who has called for lower fuel costs.

Written by Salma El Wardany, Ben Bartenstein, Fiona MacDonald and Grant Smith