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An OPEC-branded oil drum at the COP29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November 2024. (Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg)

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OPEC+ will discuss fast-tracking its latest round of supply hikes in three monthly installments of about 500,000 barrels a day as it seeks to recoup market share, a delegate said.

Saudi Arabia and its partners will review the expedited return of the remainder of a 1.66 million barrel-a-day supply tranche when they meet on Oct. 5, said the delegate, who asked not to be identified as the talks are private. No decision has been taken and a hike of about 500,000 barrels a day is one of the options on the table.

The oil market is headed for a record supply-demand surplus next year, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris. While any extra barrels will accentuate that, traders have focused on the fact that China has been purchasing large amounts of oil for its strategic reserve, preventing a buildup of inventories in the west.

Earlier this month, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners announced they were adding a much smaller amount than that — about 137,000 barrels a day — leaving a question mark about how fast the rest will be returned.

Delegates have said that Riyadh is seeking to reclaim the share of global markets it has ceded in recent years to rivals like U.S. shale drillers.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is also heading to Washington in November to meet with President Donald Trump, who has called for lower oil prices.

A survey by Bloomberg last week showed that traders and analysts had been previously expecting Saudi Arabia and partners to approve a boost for November more in line with the 137,000 barrel-a-day increment scheduled for next month.

While OPEC+’s decision to open the taps despite cooling Chinese consumption and plentiful American supply has put some pressure on crude markets, prices have also shown some resilience.

Brent crude futures traded at about $67.50 a barrel on Sept. 29. That’s roughly where they were in the immediate aftermath of OPEC+ announcing its last round of increases back in April.

World output will exceed consumption by an average of 3.33 million barrels per day in 2026, the IEA said earlier this month. If that materializes, it would mark a historic overhang in annual terms, though the surplus was briefly bigger at the height of the 2020 pandemic.

While OPEC+ has announced large increases so far this year, the return of actual barrels could prove smaller in practice than advertised.

Some members need to atone for earlier overproduction and others — beset by either financial constraints or international sanctions — may struggle to increase.