OPEC Still Sees Tight Oil Market Despite Supply Increases
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OPEC continued to project a substantial supply deficit in global oil markets this year and next even as the group revives production, a view that clashes with the wider industry.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners will need to provide an average of 43.45 million barrels a day in the second half of this year, considerably more than the 42.4 million they pumped in August, a month in which they ramped up, according to a report. Demand for the full alliance’s crude will average 43.1 million barrels a day in 2026, OPEC’s projections show.
Key OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia agreed at the weekend to begin reviving another halted layer of production in October as they attempt to regain market share. The analysis on Sept. 11 from OPEC’s secretariat would suggest they have scope to keep going.
Oil prices have given the organization a sense of vindication, having slipped only modestly even as OPEC+ announced plans to swiftly reactivate 2.2 million barrels a day of halted output despite widespread predictions of an overhang. Brent futures are trading near $67 a barrel.
Global oil markets are being pulled in different directions.
New sanctions risk supply losses, while a backdrop of higher OPEC+ output raises the prospect of looser balances ahead.
More in our September Oil Market Report 👇 — International Energy Agency (@IEA)
But the secretariat’s forecasts have proved excessively bullish in recent years, and remain at odds with other forecasters.
The cartel projects that world oil consumption will climb by 1.3 million barrels per day this year, roughly 40% faster than the rate anticipated by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Last year, OPEC slashed demand projections for 2024 by 32% in a slew of monthly downgrades.
OPEC also continues to diverge sharply from the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based organization that advises most major economies.
In a report on Sept. 11, the IEA boosted estimates for the record oil surplus that it anticipates in 2026 to more than 3 million barrels a day, amid cooling demand growth in China and booming supply across the Americas.
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