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President Donald Trump’s push for import tariffs and the recent White House personnel upheaval increase the chance of a global trade war — and traders need to stay alert, because the end result could be the reappearance of inflation, according to at least one market analyst.

A full-blown trade war could cost the global economy $470 billion, according to Bloomberg Economics.

The strength of oil consumption took analysts by surprise last year, and played a big role in crude’s recovery to a three-year high in January.

The U.S. trade deficit widened more than forecast in January to a post-recession high, adding to figures cited by President Donald Trump as evidence of American weakness while he brings the nation to the brink of a trade war.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the Trump administration isn’t trying to provoke a global trade fight with the steel and aluminum tariffs announced last week.

The White House signaled President Donald Trump will pay close attention to the fate of workers left behind by globalization as a new benchmark for negotiating trade deals around the world.

The Trump administration has no formal proposal on the table for a so-called reciprocal tax on imports, according to a U.S. official who sought to clarify whether a levy that risks escalating tensions with key trading partners would be enacted.

President Donald Trump said Feb. 12 that he will propose a tax on imports this week, reviving an idea he floated earlier in his administration that risks raising tensions with key U.S. trade partners.

The U.S. trade deficit widened to the biggest monthly and annual levels since the last recession, underscoring the inherent friction in President Donald Trump’s goal of narrowing the gap while enjoying faster economic growth.

The European Union gave President Donald Trump a fresh warning about any U.S. curbs on imports from Europe by pledging rapid retaliation, highlighting the persistent risk of a trans-Atlantic trade war.