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The likelihood of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months rose to 35% in an August survey of economists, from 31% forecast previously, as global trade tensions fuel economic uncertainty.

The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China is nudging the world economy toward its first recession in a decade with investors demanding politicians and central bankers act fast to change course.

A gauge of service industries declined in July to an almost three-year low as orders continued to cool, indicating a sluggish start to the third quarter for the biggest part of the economy.

Orders with U.S. factories for business equipment rebounded in May with the largest increase in four months, signaling corporate investment is holding up despite tensions with major trading partners fueling uncertainty about the outlook.

One of the biggest concerns in recent decades has been the “hollowing out” of middle-wage, middle-skill jobs. Employment at the low and high ends of the income scale has risen faster, and many jobs that have traditionally supported the middle class have suffered by comparison, with ramifications that are social and political as well as economic.

U.S. stock futures slumped and Treasuries surged, signaling the May 14 relief rally will be short-lived, as fresh concern about the health of the global economy rattled investors still on edge over the trade war.

Economists expect U.S. first-quarter growth to decelerate less than previously thought even as they cut forecasts for the rest of the year, projecting a second-quarter rebound will fade as the effects of tax cuts wane.

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy slowed in the final three months of last year to an annual growth rate of 2.6%, the slowest pace since the beginning of 2018, as the government shutdown and other factors took a toll on growth. Economists believe growth has slowed even more in the current quarter.

Canadian gross domestic product grew at the fastest pace in five months on a lift from manufacturing, while oil made an unexpected contribution as prices began to fall for Alberta crude.

The U.S. economy remained on a solid footing in the third quarter, matching previously reported results, as stronger business investment and a bigger boost from inventories cushioned a trade drag that matched the worst since 1984.