USDA Lowers Cattle Price Forecast After Tyson Plant Closes
Decrease in Cattle Price Estimates Through 2026 Accounts for Reduced Slaughtering Capacity Early Next Year, Recent Pricing Data
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Cattle prices won’t rise as much as previously expected in 2026, as the closure of a Tyson Foods plant is seen loosening competition for scarce U.S. supplies.
The Department of Agriculture on Dec. 9ÌýloweredÌýits estimates for cattle prices through 2026, citing reduced slaughter plant capacity early next year and recent pricing data. Tyson, the largest U.S. meatpacker, said inÌýlate NovemberÌýthat it would end operations at a Nebraska beef plant and reduce operations at a Texas facility to a single shift.ÌýTyson ranks No. 9 on the Transport Topics Top 100 list of theÌýlargest private carriers in North America.
Prices for the animals have surged amid a severe U.S. cattle shortage, which has left meat processors bidding up prices to secure limited supplies. The situation has been exacerbated by an ongoing halt to Mexican cattle shipments to prevent the spread of a deadly pest and by tariffs on Brazilian beef that were only recently lifted.Ìý
That has sent consumer beef costs soaring to record highs, creating the latest prominent inflationary signal that the Trump administration has tried to tamp down.Ìý
Steers are now forecast to cost $235 per hundredweight in 2026, down 4.5% from the USDA’s November estimate. Still, that would mark a 5% increase from the projected 2025 price, which the USDA trimmed only slightly. Live cattle futures traded in Chicago were little changed following the report.
The Tyson plant in Lexington, Neb. (Dan Brouillette/Bloomberg)
Tyson’s plant in Lexington, Neb., was one of the company’s largest, with the ability to slaughter nearly 5,000 head of cattle per day. Cattle futures had reached a six-month low following the announcement, as the drop in capacity is expected to lower competition among meatpackers for limited supplies.
Meanwhile, the USDA raised its 2026 outlook for beef imports to 5.45 million pounds, up 10% from last month’s estimate as the removal of tariffs on beef products is expected to boost shipments. That would also mark a year-over-year increase in beef imports, reversing prior expectations of a drop.Ìý
The U.S. has becomeÌýÌýon foreign supplies to meetÌýresilient demand. Trump late last month liftedÌýtariffs on Brazilian beef, a move that is expected to eventually cool record prices for ground beef.Ìý
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