US Sees Small Global Oil Deficit in 2025
Outlook Reversal Comes After OPEC Defers Supply Increases
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The U.S. reversed its forecast for a crude glut next year and is now calling for a small oil-market deficit.
Global oil consumption should exceed output by 100,000 barrels a day in 2025, according to a monthly report from the Energy Information Administration out Dec. 10. That compares with a 300,000 barrel-a-day surplus forecast last month.
The downward revision comes after OPEC and its allies deferred supply increases for three months, which the EIA expects will tighten the market.
The U.S. outlook, however, runs counter to that of the International Energy Agency, which last month predicted a 1 million barrel-a-day surplus in 2025 despite the OPEC+ decision. The IEA is due to update its forecast later this week.
Investors are closely watching balances for next year, as weak demand and rising production outside of OPEC keep oil futures rangebound. Adding to bearish sentiment, Saudi Arabia cut oil prices for buyers in Asia over the weekend, underscoring the market’s weakening outlook.
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