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Rush Enterprises Chief Operating Officer Jason Wilder (left) and CEO W.M. "Rusty" Rush discuss the state of the truck sales market during the Rush Tech Skills Rodeo in Nashville, Tenn. (Michael Freeze/Transport Topics)

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NASHVILLE, Tenn. — . founder and CEO W.M. “Rusty” Rush remains hopeful about the trucking industry next year, adding that there are signs of life in the spot rate market — but it’s not yet a positive turnaround.

Rush and Chief Operating Officer Jason Wilder shared industry insights during the company’s annual Tech Skills Rodeo event Dec. 16. Rush explained how he sees the market as well as where the fundamentals differ.

He referred to the current downturn as a “right-sizing” due to fleets overbuying during the COVID era.

“We’re in a third year or more of a freight recession from a truckload perspective,” he told Transport Topics, adding that unlike past cycles that corrected more quickly, excess capacity has lingered. He pointed to lenient lenders on foreclosures and repossessions, too many trucks pushed into the market during the boom and demand that never fully caught up.

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A view of the exhibit hall at Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center in Nashville, Tenn. (Michael Freeze/Transport Topics)

“I think you’re going to get some capacity finally coming out, but you got to have demand too,” Rush said. “We’re seeing spot rates in better shape a little bit here and there just recently, but I’ve seen signs like this before over the last year and a half, then they quickly get squelched. But I do believe that it’s got to get better.”

Rush noted that the biggest factor has been uncertainty. From tariffs to shifting EPA nitrogen-oxide and aftertreatment requirements, fleets and OEMs spent much of the year waiting for clarity.

“It’s hard to run a business when it’s changing … week to week, month to month,” he said. “I think that had a lot to do with what was going on.”

With those challenges, however, Rush expects a limited pre-buy, assuming fleets feel confident enough to pull some units forward.

Within this soft market, the company has leaned in on its vocational segments such as construction and refuse as well as medium-duty, parts and services, and leasing.

That mix, spread across varied geographies, has helped the company stay “pretty flat” instead of deeply negative, Wilder said.

“We had a solid [year] of used truck, parts and service, and body shop business,” he said. “As that inflection point of when the tariffs were coming out, you start seeing that stagnation of the new truck purchases. That’s typically the seasonality.”

On the medium-duty side, both executives stressed that there will be challenges lingering into 2026.

“Medium-duty didn’t get a reprieve. There was a tremendous amount of truck inventories that were built up. OEMs caught up, built up, and there was a lot of inventory sitting on dealers’ lots. There are still more than your normal years,” Wilder said, adding that meaningful improvement likely hinges on the industries that medium-duty vehicles serve such as housing, landscaping, HVAC and food delivery.

“Medium-duty customers are going to buy a truck if they’re delivering oranges and someone wants them to deliver more oranges,” he said. “I mean, it’s just that simple."

Rush said that steady, not explosive, adoption of electrification is where medium-duty ultimately may make more sense than heavy-duty over-the-road. In addition, he stated the market customer will be led by end demand, not regulation.

“For most customers, [medium-duty trucks are] an expense item,” he said. “It’s going to be driven more by the economy than it will be by EPA requirements.”

The 2025 and 2026 Peterbilt Model 520 trash trucks are purpose-built for the refuse industry and engineered for durability, efficiency and operator comfort.

These units were purchased before recent market price jumps. Secure them at pre-tariff values: — Rush Truck Centers (@rushtruckcenter)

Industrywide, Rush sees opportunity in alternative fuels; however, he warned not to be seduced by the hype. Rush Enterprises has been deeply invested in compressed natural gas for years, especially in refuse.

“We love working on natural gas. We’ve invested in the bays and the facilities to do it,” Rush said. “It’s been a pet project of mine for the last 18 years because I love trash. We’re still believing in it, because a large customer base is largely invested in it, too.”

Rush also expounded on the Federal Reserve meeting in mid-January and his expectations on how the governors will vote on interest rates. The board cut rates by a quarter percent in the December 2025 meeting.

“I got to believe, from what I’ve read, it was a rather divisive meeting. But where there is smoke, there is fire,” Rush said. “I expect them to pause. Now, the [Trump] administration is not going to like that, but we’re getting a new Fed chair in May, so we’ll see.”

Rush added that he and most of his customers are more worried about unemployment and inflation. With those concerns, he noted that it’s going to need a “wait-and-see” approach.

“With the full impact of the tariffs, we will rebuild and restock,” he said, “and see where we are at then.”

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