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This story appears in the Oct. 4 print edition of Transport Topics.

Orders for new commercial trailers jumped 55% in August over the comparable month last year, and new orders for the year to date are now 71% above the first eight months of 2009, ACT Research Co. reported.

“Trucker profits have been rising all year, with the combination of more freight and tightening freight capacity, and that is giving fleets the confidence to replace older equipment, including trailers,” Kenny Vieth, senior analyst with ACT Research, Columbus, Ind., told Transport Topics on Sept. 24.

Trailer manufacturers received 10,946 net new orders in August, up from 7,058 in August 2009, and up 2% from July, ACT said. Through August trailer orders this year totaled 91,917, compared with 53,618 ordered in the same period last year.

Trailer manufacturers confirmed that orders have been growing briskly, but they were far from confident about the strength of the recovery.

“We’re happy that orders are coming in at a much better pace than last year, but whether that rate continues is anyone’s guess,” Ken Wahlin, president of dry-van manufacturer Stoughton Trailers, Stoughton, Wis., told TT.

“I believe it will continue, but only as long as freight stays strong and the economy continues to improve,” he explained. “If anything bad happens in the freight environment, we can go backwards . . . though I expect a slow, upward climb.”

Wahlin said that fleets were buying mostly replacement trailers rather than expanding capacity.

“A few are increasing their trailer capacity, but they are doing it only slowly and deliberately,” Wahlin said. “Fleets that are increasing capacity are weighted towards the larger carriers.”

Craig Bennett, senior vice president for sales and marketing at Utility Trailer Manufacturing Co., City of Industry, Calif., also was cautiously optimistic.

“We’re up dramatically in orders from last year, but not as much as ACT is reporting,” Bennett told TT. “We’re probably going to be up 30% from last year by the time 2010 is done, and we expect another 20% to 25% increase above that in 2011.”

Bennett cautioned, however, that “the rate of trailer order increases has moderated because of recent slackening in freight demand.”

He said, however, that demand for intermodal containers “was still running high.”

Bennett said the “hesitation” could be linked to what he said was usual summer slowdown.

“However, orders haven’t been as robust in September, either, so that there’s a bit of trepidation over whether the recovery will continue as strongly as during the first six months of the year,” Bennett said.

Jeff Sims, president of the Truck Trailer Manufacturers Association, the industry’s trade group in Alexandria, Va., also expressed guarded optimism.

“Trailer orders have been rising in most segments, but with the elections coming up, a kind of stalemate has fallen over the industry,” Sims said. “With so much uncertainty out there, whether the government will pass tax cuts, or won’t they, whether there is any other government relief in sight for the industry, a lot of people are just holding their breath, not making any decisions until they see what happens in November.”

Christopher Hammond, vice president of dealer sales, Great Dane Trailers, Savannah, Ga., was much more optimistic in the short run but said he saw a difficult recovery.

“We have been increasing staffing in all of our plants in order to build more trailers to meet this growing demand,” Hammond told TT. “We’re also bringing our closed plant in Jonesboro, Ark., back on line. It’s being staffed right now and will be producing trailers very soon.”

Hammond saw a very different recovery from previous recessions.

“There’s a little bit of life out there, and we’ll continue to see growth, but it won’t be like past recessions, where they were bad, bad, bad, but then, the economy got real good, real fast,” Hammond said. “This recovery is going to be unlike anything we’ve ever seen before: very slow, very gradual.”

Bill Tirrill, vice president of national accounts sales for the trailer sales and leasing company Fleetco Inc., Nashville, Tenn., was cautious, too.

“We feel a lot better about the market than we did in January and believe the worst is behind us,” Tirrill told TT. “But many fleets are still buying used trailers, but basically, at some point that market will dry up, and they’ll have no choice but to buy new equipment.”

He said that Fleetco has just ordered 100 new trailers for its own stock as a sign of the company’s confidence.

“We still feel relatively good, but we don’t know how strong the recovery will be,” Tirrill said. “We don’t see a straight line up but rather modest growth, with most orders coming for replacing trailers, rather than expanding fleets.”

ACT Research said that eight of the nine trailer categories it tracks posted year-over-year growth, with only dump truck trailers, which primarily support the construction sector, declining by 2% compared with August of last year.