Truck OEMs Face First-Half Woes in 2026, McKinsey Says
Uncertainty — Rather Than Lack of Profit — Is Driving Fleets' Postponement of Equipment Purchases From Manufacturers
Key Takeaways:
- North American heavy-duty truck sales remain weak as fleets delay purchases, with McKinsey forecasting a 10% to 25% year-over-year decline through the first half of 2026.
- Electrification is slowing, with U.S. electric truck orders plunging, Europe trailing expectations and Chinese OEMs gaining a 20% to 50% cost edge via local production.
- Autonomous trucking and software-defined vehicles are gaining momentum, while McKinsey remains bullish on North America long term as the fastest-growing large market through 2035.
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LAS VEGAS — The North American heavy-duty truck market remains under pressure with fleets delaying equipment purchases amid uncertainty. Original equipment manufacturers are facing weak volumes and significant margin pressures, and sales are expected to remain weak through the first half of the year.
“2025 was extremely challenging, and 2026 is projected to at least start equally challenging,” said Moritz Rittstieg, a partner at consulting firm McKinsey & Co. “All OEMs are hurting, although they are not hurting to the same extent.”
The ongoing freight recession has been compounded by tariffs and economic volatility, leading fleets to hold on to equipment longer. “What’s driving the postponement of purchases is uncertainty more than actual profitability right now,” Rittstieg said.
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McKinsey expects to see a 10% to 25% year-over-year decrease through the first half of 2026. Rittstieg said right now, fleets only buy new trucks when they have to, adding there is hope that will happen at scale during the second half of this year.
“Large fleets and leasing are where you see the orders come in first before they hit retail,” he noted.
Rittstieg, along with Tobias Schneiderbauer, a partner with McKinsey, spoke with journalists during the CES trade show.
From left: Moritz Rittstieg and Tobias Schneiderbauer of McKinsey at CES 2026. (Mindy Long for Transport Topics)
Tariffs have hit the four major OEMs differently, with some “faring significantly better” than others, Rittstieg said. “The question is really how this will translate into equipment prices in the market going forward.”
OEMs have been hesitant to increase prices, “but there is the potential that this significantly impacts the profitability in the midterm,” Rittstieg explained, noting that it also could affect manufacturers’ market share. “There needs to be a price reset in the market based on tariffs.”
Electrification Slows in the US
OEMs also are facing declining sales of battery-electric vehicles, putting pressure on those that invested heavily in zero-emissions platforms, especially in North America where sales have decreased substantially.
“The order books have plummeted, and it looks like electrification is going to be significantly slower than initially projected,” Rittstieg said.
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Regulatory requirements tend to drive adoption in the U.S., and most U.S. fleets are unwilling to absorb higher purchasing costs without a strong total cost of ownership. Rittstieg said some applications, including yard hostlers and last-mile deliveries, can offer a financial advantage.
In Europe, sales are more stable but also slower than expected. McKinsey’s midcase outlook projects electric trucks to make up about 30% of sales by 2030, down from about 43% in earlier forecasts but still a large percentage. Charging infrastructure remains a challenge, and public charging capacity needs “a 25-fold increase ... to meet the target,” Schneiderbauer said.
Sales of EVs are advancing the fastest in China, particularly in construction and urban applications. Growth is being supported by battery-swapping models and investment in longhaul operations.
Chinese OEMs are now exporting those platforms into international markets, Schneiderbauer said. Local production can achieve a 20% to 50% cost advantage over Western OEMs, likely increasing pressure on other manufacturers. Schneiderbauer noted that most European fleet operators are familiar with Chinese OEMs, and 73% of European fleet respondents in a McKinsey survey said they would purchase a Chinese vehicle.
Going forward, McKinsey estimates that China and Europe will account for 50% to 60% of sales by 2035, while North America will account for about 15%. As a result, OEMs may need to devise region-specific powertrain portfolios.
Autonomy, SDVs and AI Gain Momentum
While electrification timelines are shifting to the right, autonomy is showing increasing momentum. “The engineering problem is largely solved,” Rittstieg said.
Initial commercialization is expected to focus on a limited number of defined routes, primarily in the southern U.S., with completely driverless operations anticipated later this year. McKinsey anticipates autonomous operations to gradually shift from hub-to-hub routes to full autonomy.
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Rittstieg said about two-thirds of U.S. states are favorable to autonomous technology.
“A bunch are neutral. Very few are against it,” he said, noting that California is viewed as “less forward-leaning.”
Even still, the economics of autonomous trucks is complex. Removing the driver can lead to significant savings, but those gains must be shared among fleets, OEMs and autonomous technology providers, Rittstieg said.
Beyond autonomy, OEMs are focusing on software-defined vehicles, or SDVs, and agentic AI to increase efficiency and boost revenue.
Automating development, validation and administrative processes is seen as a near-term opportunity, while longer-term value lies in improved customer insight and aftermarket monetization.
The hope is that software platforms will lead to future sales.
“There is the idea that they will drive solution roles, that they will provide stickiness with customers and eventually lead to monetization after the point of sale, which is essentially what the OEMs are looking for when they look at future profit pools,” Schneiderbauer said.
Today, McKinsey estimates OEMs capture about “$1 out of $3” spent on a truck over its life cycle, more in early years and less later on. Increasing aftermarket share through connectivity, predictive maintenance and bundled services could drive that much higher.
Even though near-term conditions remain difficult, Rittstieg said the U.S. remains the most attractive global truck market, and McKinsey projects North America will be the fastest-growing large market through 2035.
“When it comes to profit pools, this is the market you want to be in,” he said, adding that OEMs are likely to prioritize North American sales. “So I’m still pretty bullish on the U.S. as a market.”
In addition to fleets’ replacement cycles kicking off in the second half of 2026, McKinsey expects aftermarket parts and services to remain strong throughout the year.
