Economic Factors Bombard Truck Makers From All Angles
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Multiple adverse factors contributed to a much rougher three months for truck manufacturers in the first quarter of 2025 than was expected at the turn of the calendar year, according to earnings reports, executives and market watchers.
Sales and orders tanked in Q1 on the back of ongoing U.S. freight market weakness, doubts over the global macroeconomic outlook, regulatory uncertainty, wariness over the Trump administration’s mercurial trade policy and price hike expectations that were then realized.
And with all the major original equipment manufacturers’ earnings published, Transport Topics dived into the numbers.
Class 8 truck retail sales in Q1 totaled 50,627 trucks, a 9.4% year-on-year decrease, according to Wards Intelligence data. ’s Freightliner brand sold the most trucks with 19,443, good for a 38.4% market share.
Q1 2025 Trucks Sold and Market Share in US
• Freightliner: 19,443, 38.4%
• Peterbilt: 7,491, 14.8%
• Kenworth: 7,229, 14.3%
• International: 5,868, 11.6% •
• Volvo: 3,962, 7.8%
• Mack: 3,891, 7.7%
• Western Star: 2,718, 5.4%
• Hino: 25, 0.05%
Total trucks sold: 50,627
Source: Wards Intelligence
2024 Q1 Trucks Sold and Market Share in US
• Freightliner: 21,570, 38.6%
• Peterbilt: 8,750, 15.7%
• Kenworth: 8,419, 15.1%
• International: 5,654, 10.1%)
• Volvo: 5,581, 10%)
• Mack: 3,348, 6%
• Western Star: 2,518, 4.5%)
• Hino: 22, 0.04%
Total sales: 55,862
Source: Wards Intelligence
Overall, DTNA sales in the U.S. totaled 33,399 trucks in the most recent three-month period, down 15% compared with 39,263 in the year-ago period, according to a fact book issued by parent company Daimler Truck on May 13.
's heavy-duty truck market share in North America fell to 7.2% in Q1 from 9.1% a year earlier while Mack’s market share rose to 6.9% from 5.3% on the back of an improved supply chain and good vocational demand, the parent group said April 23 during the company’s earnings call.
International eRH Series tractor. (International Motors)
International sold 13,702 trucks in Q1, a 27% decrease compared with 17,512 trucks in the year-ago period, parent company Traton Group said April 28. Traton said this was due in part to customer caution in an uncertain economic environment.
Paccar sold 22,200 Kenworth and Peterbilt trucks in the U.S. and Canada in the most recent quarter, down 24.7% compared with 29,500 trucks in the year-ago period.
The prospects are not much better for the rest of the year, according to observers and the OEMs.
preliminary data showed Class 8 orders decreased 52.1% year over year in April to 7,600 units from 15,850. Orders also fell 53.9% compared with 16,500 trucks in March.
Traton said uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy hurt orders alongside the ongoing contraction in the freight market.
Mack Trucks unveiled its newest Class 8 tractor, the Pioneer, on April 8 in Brooklyn, N.Y. (Michael Freeze/Transport Topics)
Mack was an exception among the major truck makers, with North American orders jumping 108% in Q1 to 5,851 from 2,685 in the year-ago period on demand for vocational trucks. By contrast, Volvo orders slumped 33% to 4,621 from 6,909 a year earlier.
Daimler Truck said it now expects overall heavy-duty Class 8 sales in North America in a range of 260,000 to 290,000 vehicles, compared with previous expectations of 280,000 to 320,000 trucks.
DTNA is forecast to sell 155,000 to 175,000 trucks in 2025 across all classes, down from a 180,000 to 200,000 range prior to the Trump administration introducing a variety of tariffs and the reciprocal actions of its peers.
Volvo cut its 2025 North American heavy-duty truck demand forecast as a result of the hesitancy among fleet executives, it said. The Swedish company now expects demand in the U.S., Canada and Mexico to total 275,000 trucks, compared with 300,000 trucks previously.
Paccar brand Peterbilt unveiled its Model 567EV truck to media members at Texas Motor Speedway on April 14. (Peterbilt Motors Co.)
Paccar expects U.S. and Canadian Class 8 truck industry retail sales are now estimated to be in a range of 235,000-265,000 trucks in 2025. When releasing its fourth-quarter 2024 results, Paccar said it expected sales to be in a range of 250,000-280,000 trucks in 2025.
Part of this is due to uncertainty over emissions regulations, with the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards for Heavy-Duty Vehicles and 2022 Heavy-Duty Nitrogen Oxides rule on the chopping block or likely to see wholesale change.
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A rush by fleets to “pre-buy” new trucks was anticipated before the stricter federal emission standards were due to take effect.
And disquiet over the freight market outlook means truck demand in North America is so poor the truck manufacturers laid off employees.
About 1,000 U.S. employees will lose their jobs at VTNA and Mack in Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania. International cut 900 jobs at its heavy-duty truck manufacturing plant in Escobedo, Mexico, axing the second shift at the assembly facility.
International does not expect any job cuts at its U.S. manufacturing facilities in the coming months despite the slump in demand, CEO Mathias Carlbaum told a reporter roundtable April 29.
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Demand also was being hurt by expected price rises, which then materialized.
VTNA and Mack warned customers of May price hikes for new vehicles in March after the Trump administration slapped a 25% tariff on U.S. imports of steel and aluminum.
Raw materials plus direct and indirect tariffs — particularly on electronic components — led International to increase its prices, Carlbaum said during the roundtable on the sidelines of the 2025 Advanced Clean Transportation Expo, adding that suppliers had no wiggle room when it came to passing on the tariffs to the truck maker.
Daimler Truck Chief Financial Officer Eva Scherer — the second most powerful executive at the world’s largest truck maker — said during a May 14 Q1 earnings call that the biggest impact of the plethora of Trump administration and reciprocal tariffs would likely be a continued reluctance on the part of fleets to purchase new trucks.
