Small-Business Optimism Edges Higher on Better Sales Outlook

But Only 21% of Owners Plan Capital Outlays in Next 6 Months
Manufacturing plant
A worker removes a vinyl record from a press at the Third Man Pressing manufacturing facility in Detroit. (Eilon Paz/Bloomberg News)

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Sentiment among U.S. small businesses edged higher in August, led by the most favorable sales expectations in six months as owners grew more sanguine about the health of their companies.

The National Federation of Independent Business optimism index advanced 0.5 point to 100.8, the highest level since January, according to data out Sept. 9. Four of the 10 components that make up the gauge improved and two were unchanged.

A net 12% of owners expect higher retail sales volumes in the next three months, up 6 points and contributing the most to the increase in the overall optimism index, NFIB said.



When asked to rate the overall health of their business, 68% of owners said it as either excellent or good, up from last month, while 31% said it was either fair or poor, down from July.

While the NFIB said higher import duties may be starting to impact pricing, the net share of small businesses that raised prices dropped to 21%, the lowest reading of the year. Fewer firms also said they expect to boost prices in the next three months.

A net 34% of owners expect better business conditions, down 2 percentage points from a month earlier but still elevated. A net 14% said now is a good time to expand their business, also down 2 points from July when it was the largest share since January.

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The group’s uncertainty index fell by 4 points to 93 last month, but that was still the 11th highest reading in more than 51 years, according to NFIB. The decline was due to a decrease in uncertainty about financing expectations and planned capital expenditures, according to NFIB.

Despite President Donald Trump signing into law on July 4 his “One Big Beautiful Bill” that includes business tax provisions to encourage investment, only 21% of owners plan capital outlays in the next six months, down 1 point from July.

Meanwhile, labor quality ranked as the top concern for 21% of respondents, unchanged from the prior month. Even so, the share reporting unfilled job openings fell to 32%, the lowest since December 2020.