Inflation Cools in February

But Trade War Threatens to Lift Prices
egg shopper
A shopper checks eggs at a grocery store in Glenview, Ill. (Nam Y. Huh/AP/File)

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WASHINGTON 鈥 U.S. inflation slowed last month for the first time since September even as additional tariffs on steel and aluminum that kicked in March 12 threaten to send prices higher.

The consumer price index increased 2.8% in February from a year ago, the March 12 report from the Labor Department showed, down from 3% the previous month. Core prices, which exclude the volatile food and energy categories, rose 3.1% from a year earlier, down from 3.3% in January. The core figure is the lowest in nearly four years.

The declines were larger than economists expected, according to a survey by data provider FactSet. Yet they remain higher than the Federal Reserve鈥檚 2% target. Sticky inflation could create problems for President Donald Trump, who promised during last year鈥檚 campaign to 鈥渒nock the hell out of inflation.鈥



And with Trump imposing 鈥 or threatening to impose 鈥 a wide range of tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, China, Europe and India, most economists forecast price growth will likely remain elevated this year.

The duties have roiled financial markets and could sharply slow the economy, with some analysts raising the odds of a recession. Many economists expect inflation would fall this year without the import taxes, but with tariffs imposed, they forecast inflation will stay elevated through the end of this year.

鈥淭here鈥檚 no real progress toward that 2% goal,鈥 Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade Americas, a financial services firm, said. 鈥淚 suspect that you鈥檙e going to start seeing inflation numbers go the other way.鈥

The report is unlikely to move the inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve much closer toward cutting their key interest rate, which they reduced three times last year amid signs that inflation was fading. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in January that rate cuts were on hold and another reduction is highly unlikely at the Fed鈥檚 meeting next week.

AP Writers Josh Boak and Paul Wiseman in Washington, and Lorne Cook and David McHugh in Europe, contributed to this report.

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