US Import Slowdown Signals Possible ‘Goods Recession’
Analysts Warn of Structural Shift in Global Trade Patterns
Key Takeaways:
- U.S. container imports fell 0.1% in October and are projected to drop as much as 18% by December amid tariff uncertainty and weak consumer demand.
- The slowdown follows higher import taxes and shifting trade policies under President Donald Trump, with forecasts showing continued declines into early 2026.
- Retailers and ports expect moderate resilience next year, but analysts warn persistent trade volatility and a potential “goods recession” could weigh on supply chains.
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U.S. import volume is projected to slow through the year-end holidays and into 2026, as tariff uncertainty weighs on cargo owners and the outlook forconsumer spendingremains clouded, new data show.
According to Descartes Systems Group’s latest Global Shipping Report, the volume of U.S. container imports slipped 0.1% last month compared with September, marking only the second October in the past decade to show a month-over-month decline and “a clear sign of importer caution.”
The October total of 2.31 million 20-foot equivalent container units, or TEUs, was 7.5% lower the year-earlier level and left the year-to-date tally just 0.9% higher than the total during the first 10 months of 2024. Separate figures from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates predict year-on-year declines in inbound container volumes of 14.4% for November and 17.9% in December.
U.S. importers are facing "persistent geopolitical friction and regulatory volatility, which drive higher levels of supply chain uncertainty and complexity as policies shift and evolve quickly," Jackson Wood, director of industry strategy at Descartes, said in the report released on Nov. 10.
President Donald Trump's return to the White House in January kicked off a roller coaster year for manufacturers, retailers and other U.S. industries dependent on goods from abroad. They're mostly absorbing his higher import taxes, while small businesses in particular are struggling to manage supply networks without a clear picture of their landed costs.
(Bloomberg)
The future of Trump’s tariff reach was thrown into fresh doubt last week as the Supreme Court sounded skeptical about the constitutionality of his broad use of import taxes.
Starting on Nov. 10, the 20% U.S. fentanyl tariff on imports from China is reduced to 10%, and a significant increase in "reciprocal" duties on Chinese goods set to take effect is paused for a third time, this time for a year. The 10% duty Trump imposed using emergency powers remains in place while it's under the high court's review.
Tariff mitigation efforts by retailers earlier in the year may have spared Americans major disruptions like shortages and price spikes during the holiday shopping season, according to the National Retail Federation.
‘Well-Stocked’ Shelves
"Store shelves are well-stocked and the effect on prices has been minimized, largely thanks to retailers taking steps like front-loading imports during times of low or delayed tariff increases or absorbing the costs themselves," NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement on Nov. 7.
The NRF and Hackett Associates’ port-tracking data project a soft finish to the year. If realized, the nearly 18% plunge forecast for December would be the slowest month since March 2023.
The NRF and Hackett Associates’ Global Port Tracker forecasts 2025 to close at container volumes totaling 24.9 million TEUs, down 2.3% from last year’s total. The first quarter of 2026 is likely to see weak year-on-year comparisons, too, partly because shipments were pulled forward to avoid tariffs.
“These conditions make market forecasting highly uncertain,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. “Our trade outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026.”
According topublished last week by Vizion, a tech company that provides supply-chain visibility, the “new normal” in freight brings subdued demand.
“For the first time since March 2023, monthly import volumes are falling below the 2 million TEU threshold, signaling what freight industry experts now characterize as a ‘goods recession,’” Vizion said in a blog post. “This contraction represents a structural shift rather than temporary volatility.”
(Bloomberg)
Monthlytrade datalast week confirmed that the U.S. market is in decline for Chinese manufacturers.
China's total shipments abroad fell for the first time in eight months, dropping 1.1% from a year earlier, according to official data released on Nov. 7. Shipments to all nations except the U.S. rose 3.1%, not enough to compensate for the more than 25% decline to America.
A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S CEO Vincent Clerc said it’s hard for the world’s No. 2 container carrier to decipher whether the recent soft demand in North America was an inventory correction after the pulling-forward of orders earlier this year, or whether it’s reflecting fundamentally weak demand.
Maerskranks No. 7 on theTransport Topics Top 50 list of the largest global freight companies.
Still, he said there are signs of resilience in an outlook otherwise dimmed by trade policy unknowns.
"As far as the next six months are concerned, we expect still quite a resilient demand into North America with goods starting now to pick up pace compared to what we have seen in the last couple of quarters," Clerc told Bloomberg Television on Nov. 7.
"One of the core risks that we see is the uncertainty that there is," he said, noting that a recent U.S.-China truce offers reprieves on tariffs and ship fees that are only temporary. "The long-term playing field is still unclear."
Long Beach’s View
At the Port of Long Beach in Southern California, CEO Mario Cordero said he expects to close 2025 near the facility’s record volume set last year of 9.6 million 20-foot equivalent container units, or TEUs, even with a slowdown over the next two months.
"We're looking forward to a moderate increase in cargo in 2026," Cordero told reporters on Nov. 7, though he said much depends on the economy, including how much and when tariffs filter through to consumer prices, and on the status of the U.S.-China trade war.
(Bloomberg)
For example, soybean exports leaving the Port of Long Beach dropped 93% in the first nine months of 2025 compared with the year before, according to the port, the nation's second-busiest. That's because China refused to purchase the commodity from U.S. farmers in retaliation for Trump's trade war. China has since agreed to restart soybean purchases.
Cordero said goods categories like winter clothing, toys and furniture, are on the decline, while the boom in artificial intelligence is spurring an increase in electronics and other products related to data centers.
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