Global Growth to Slow as Trump’s Tariffs Hit, UN Says
Economy Is Forecast to Expand 2.7% This Year, Down From an Estimated 2.8% in 2025
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Global economic growth will slow down a little in 2026 as President Donald Trump’s tariffs have a more pronounced impact and geopolitical uncertainties spread, according to an annual United Nations assessment.
The global economy is forecast to expand 2.7% this year, down from an estimated 2.8% in 2025, the U.N. said in its World Situation and Prospects study released Jan. 8. By 2027, growth is expected to go back up to 2.9%.
Last year, the international economy was able to absorb the shock of tariffs that Trump imposed in April on most U.S. trading partners, but their effect will “become more evident in 2026,” according to the report.
It expects the increase in global trade, estimated at 3.8% for 2025, to slow to 2.2% this year.
As well as tensions around trade, the U.N. sees other risks including geopolitical conflicts that could drag growth rates down, offsetting higher consumer spending and more stable labor markets.
“A combination of economic, geopolitical and technological tensions is reshaping the global landscape, generating new economic uncertainty and social vulnerabilities,” Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement.
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The world economy has for several years been expanding at a slower pace than it was in the decade before the pandemic, when growth averaged 3.2%.
An exception to the general slowdown forecast for this year is the U.S., where the researchers expect growth to edge up to 2% — from 1.9% in 2025 — “supported by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies.”
Allies like the EU and Japan, however, will see their growth rate dip slightly, according to the UN. In China, a key target of the U.S. tariffs, growth is forecast to slow to 4.6% from 4.9%.
