FedEx Restores Profit Guidance After Strong Q1 Results
Outlook Assumes Tariff Pressures Will Not Worsen This Year
Key Takeaways:
- FedEx reinstated its full-year profit outlook with adjusted earnings forecast at $17.20 to $19 per share for fiscal 2026, signaling the company is gaining clarity on its business direction despite ongoing tariff pressures.
- The company expects revenue growth of up to 6% this year, significantly outpacing the 1.2% average gain analysts had forecast, while its stock rose more than 5% in after-hours trading following the announcement.
- FedEx continues to navigate trade policy changes, including the end of duty-free treatment for low-value parcels that took effect Aug. 29, as rival UPS has abandoned its guidance for the year entirely.
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FedEx Corp. reinstated its full-year profit outlook, a sign that the company is gaining some clarity on the future of its business even while the pressure from tariffs is far from over.
Adjusted earnings in the 2026 fiscal year will be $17.20 to $19 a share, the company said Sept. 18 in a statement . The midpoint is slightly below the $18.25 average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
The company expects revenue to grow by as much as 6% this year compared with a 1.2% average gain forecast by analysts.
FedEx ranks No. 2 on the Transport Topics Top 100 list of the largest for-hire carriers in North America, No. 2 on the TT50 list of the largest global freight companies and No. 43 on the TT100 list of the largest logistics companies in North America.
The reinstated outlook suggests FedEx is gaining a firmer grip on where its business is headed. The Memphis-based courier had previously withheld a full-year forecast, citing an inability to predict how demand would be shaped by President Donald Trump’s erratic tariff policies. The forecast assumes no further negative developments in global trade dynamics.
FedEx’s shares rose more than 5% in after-hours trading in New York. The stock has declined about 20% this year through close Sept. 17, compared with a 12% rise in the S&P 500 index.
The company continues to contend with the end of a longstanding trade policy that allowed low-value parcels into the country duty-free on Aug. 29, throwing the composition of global trade lanes into doubt.
In recent weeks, analysts at Bank of America Corp. downgraded FedEx and its rival United Parcel Service Inc. on the prediction that changes to this policy would lead to lackluster demand over the holidays.
Earnings per share were $3.83 for the first quarter, compared with the average analyst estimate of $3.59.
Atlanta-based UPS has abandoned its guidance for this year.
UPS ranks No. 1 on the for-hire TT100, No. 3 on the global freight TT50 and No. 5 on the logistics TT100.
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