July Class 8 Truck Sales Return to Year-Over-Year Losses
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U.S. Class 8 retail sales declined again in July after experiencing a short-lived year-over-year rise, according to data.
Sales decreased 12% to 18,838 from the 21,398 units reported during the same time last year. They also declined 7.6% sequentially from 20,392 in June.
June marked the first year-over-year increase of 2025. Year-to-date sales are down 6.1% to 126,652 units from 134,920.
“I have to say that it wasn’t terribly surprising,” said. “There is seasonality, so it’s summer vacation, not everybody’s thinking about buying commercial equipment, right? So part of that is the issue. The other piece … [is that] production was also down in July. Some of that’s seasonal, but some of it’s also the beginning of a deceleration in build rates.”
ACT Research's Steve Tam cautioned tha price increases will start filtering down to consumers and thus put the brakes on economic activity. (ACT Research)
Tam added that truck manufacturers took out 25,000 units of production in their six-month rolling build plans last month. He also pointed out that the latest monthly data puts sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 230,000, which is slightly above his forecast of 225,000 units.
“It was a little bit better than where our forecast is, but we’re also coloring ahead,” Tam said. “We have been sounding the drum for quite some time that, don’t be fooled by these benign inflation numbers because retailers, manufacturers, they’re selling out of inventory, or drawing down on inventory, that was all landed pre-tariff, and once we burn through those supplies, we’re going to start seeing price increases. That happened in the data for the producers.”
[July Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK Update] - Freight Market Air Pockets Ahead?
The effects of the highest tariffs since the 1930s on the freight market are significant.
Read more from the update here: — ACT Research (@actresearch)
Tam warned those price increases will start filtering down to consumers and thus effectively act as a brake on economic activity. Because of that, he is not surprised by sales slowing down and even expects to see numbers below those levels as the year progresses.
“You still have this situation where potential buyers, or potential investors, are saying, I just don’t know what’s going to happen, I don’t know what’s going to happen with the economy,” Tam said. “This tariff thing, we keep kicking the can down the road. Now we’ve got the 90-day extension on our trade agreement negotiations with China. And so people are just not getting answers that they need to be able to get back to business.”
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Wards found that three of the seven major truck makers saw year-over-year sales increases. Freightliner, a brand of Daimler Truck North America, claimed the largest market share at 29.4% with 5,532 trucks sold. But that also represented a 26.8% decrease from 7,562 units the prior year. Western Star, another DTNA brand, saw sales increase 19.3% to 1,056 units from 885.
Mack Trucks reported sales increased 28.7% to 1,905 from the 1,480 units reported last year. Volvo Trucks North America sales decreased 10.2% to 1,921 units from 2,139. Mack and VTNA are both brands of Volvo Group.
“July’s retail performance is consistent with what we’ve seen over the past six months, which represents continued softness in the freight market, a decelerating construction sector, and ongoing uncertainties, both regulatory and economic,” said Jonathan Randall, president of Mack Trucks North America. “This reflects a cautious yet steady approach guiding fleets in their equipment replacement cycles as we navigate the remainder of 2025.”
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International sales inched up 0.8% to 2,309 units from 2,290. Peterbilt Motors Co. sales decreased 15.9% to 2,972 units from 3,534. Kenworth Truck Co. saw sales decline 10.1% to 3,138 from 3,490. Peterbilt and Kenworth are Paccar Inc. brands.
“The heavy-duty segment is experiencing contradictions that continue to puzzle the market,” said Charles Bowles, director of strategic initiatives at Commercial Truck Trader. “Sales are down, but shopping activity tells a different story. What we’re seeing is that commercial buyers are not leaving the market — they’re simply taking longer to make decisions. Many fleets and owner-operators are extending the life cycle of their current trucks while carefully researching their next purchase. This points to a prolonged buying cycle, but also to pent-up replacement demand.”
Commercial Truck Trader is an online marketplace for new and used commercial vehicles. Its platform tracks where customers are focusing with vehicle detail page views (VDPs), which have shown overall demand is down sequentially. The platform showed that buyer interest in new Class 8 trucks surged in July. VDPs were up 24% for sleepers and 18% for day cabs.
“That kind of digital activity suggests that, even if transactions are temporarily muted, serious buyers are still in-market and actively comparing their options,” Bowles said. “Peterbilt continued to generate the most engagement on our platform, followed by Kenworth, Volvo, International, Freightliner and Mack.”
