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Class 8 Orders Soar More Than 100% Sequentially in December
Emissions Rules, Replacement Activity Fueled Sequential Gains, Experts Say, Wanting to See More Evidence of Sustained Turnaround
Key Takeaways:
- North American Class 8 truck orders surged in December, with ACT Research reporting a 118% monthly jump to 42,700 units and FTR citing a similar rise to about 42,200.
- Analysts said the spike reflected deferred purchases and early pre-buying ahead of stricter EPA nitrogen oxide rules for 2027, not stronger freight demand or carrier profitability.
- Industry executives expect orders to normalize in early 2026, with a sustained recovery dependent on improved economic and freight market conditions later in the year.
North American Class 8 truck orders soared on a sequential basis in December, a shift that ACT Research attributed more to buyer trepidation over new emissions technologies than enthusiasm with business conditions.
“A firmer economic foundation, increasingly aged fleets, and the certainty of higher costs and new technologies in 2027 were the impetus, in our opinion, for the sudden change of heart,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research, after his group announced that preliminary Class 8 orders jumped 118% in December to 42,700 units from 19,547 in November. “As trucking fundamentals remain thin, if improving, we view December’s Class 8 result as overstating the improvement.” On a year-over-year basis, orders rose 16% compared with December 2024.
Stricter Environmental Protection Agency limits on nitrogen oxide emissions taking effect for 2027 model-year trucks have spurred expectations that fleets would add new equipment before the rule change, which many expect to lift the cost of new trucks. However, weak market dynamics have kept buyers on the sidelines.
FTR Transportation Intelligence reported similar December results, stating that Class 8 preliminary net orders increased 108% on a sequential basis to 42,200 units and 21% year over year. Most of the demand came from the on-highway segment, FTR said. The data came in well above the 10-year average for the month of 29,351 units.
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“Despite greater policy clarity, freight demand remains soft, fleet profitability is constrained, and capital spending discipline persists amid rising costs,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles at FTR, pointing specifically to improved policy visibility on tariffs and emissions regulations. “As a result, December’s order strength likely reflects the release of deferred orders along with the early stages of a modest EPA 2027 NOx pre-buy rather than a broader demand inflection.” EPA said recently it will leave in place the forthcoming NOx limits, rejecting an request for a four-year delay.
[January State of the Industry: Classes 5-8 Vehicles Preliminary Update] - Preliminary Class 8 Net Orders for December
Read more from the preliminary update here: — ACT Research (@actresearch)
FTR said that while net orders were at their highest level since October 2022, it believes that a more durable recovery in equipment demand will require sustained improvement in underlying economic and freight market conditions.
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“The North American Class 8 market did see a major rebound in orders in December,” said Magnus Koeck, vice president of strategy, marketing and brand management at Volvo Trucks North America. “December 2025 was the third-best December month since 2010 and the strongest December since 2020. The total industry orders in the U.S. and Canada were just north of 38,000 units.”
But Koeck doubts that the results represent a significant sign that the trucking industry has turned the tide. Rather, he views the results as an effect of major fleets placing orders for all of 2026.
“The overall market sentiment is still stuck in uncertainties around tariffs, upcoming emission regulations, soft freight demand, as well as low carrier profitability,” Koeck said. “I believe that in January and February, we will come back to more ‘normal’ levels that better reflect that sentiment, but I’m also hopeful that we will see a more stable increase in market demand in the second half of this year.”
“December orders were encouraging, with month-over-month and year-over-year increases reflecting demand from customers who previously had delayed orders earlier in the fall,” Jonathan Randall, president of Mack Trucks North America. “Customers remain cautious, but it was good to see December’s activity.”
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