US Chicken Prices Fall 18% From Summer Peak
Tyson Foods, JBS and Cargill Have Leaned on Poultry Profits to Cushion Losses at Beef Businesses
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As Americans heeded a catchphrase and indeed ate more chicken during a beef spike, poultry producers raked in profits. Now, falling chicken prices may be bringing that rally to an end.
Spot chicken prices in the U.S. have fallen 18% since their summer barbecue-season peak as key production indicators suggest supply is finally catching up with booming consumer demand.
Some of the largest global meat producers including JBS NV, Tyson Foods Inc. and Cargill Inc. have leaned on poultry profits to cushion losses at their beef businesses, which have been impacted by the worst U.S. cattle shortage in decades. A turn in chicken’s fortunes could leave the companies more exposed to the prolonged beef slump, which isn’t expected to improve significantly before 2028.
JBS USA ranks No. 68 on theTransport Topics Top 100 list of the largest private carriersin North America and No. 10 amongagriculture/food processing carriers. Tyson ranks No. 1 on the sector list and No. 9 on the overall private TT100. Cargill ranks No. 21 on the sector list.
Chicken Supply Heads Up
The U.S. has seen an increase in the number of chick placements, improved egg fertility rates and seasonally strong poultry slaughtering numbers — all pointing to rising meat supply. The Department of Agriculture has raised its 2025 broiler production estimate for four straight months.
“We see growing signs that the cycle could be heading down as supply bottlenecks appear to be increasingly solved,” Banco Bradesco BBI analysts Henrique Brustolin and Pedro Fontana said in a note to clients.
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Meat suppliers’ shares have been under pressure, too. JBS, the world’s largest meat producer, has lost 18% over the past month and fallen to the lowest since July 23. Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. — which is controlled by JBS — Tyson and Marfrig Global Foods SA have also seen declines.
Barclays Plc. on Oct. 2 trimmed profit estimates for JBS, Pilgrim’s and Tyson Foods, citing potential pressure stemming from an earlier-than-expected seasonal decline in chicken prices.
Limiting the downside, chicken producers continue to benefit from low feed costs and resilient demand, as consumers look for cheaper alternatives than pricey beef.
