Soybean Futures Jump on Signs China Is Increasing Purchases
Purchases Have Stalled After Beginning Around the Time of Trump-Xi Meeting
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Soybean futures jumped on signals that China is stepping up buying of the oilseed, offering hope for U.S. farmers after purchases appeared to have stalled.
Prices in Chicago rose as much as 3.2% Nov. 17, hitting a fresh 17-month high, after President Donald Trump said China is in the process of buying soybeans. “They’ll be doing a lot of soybean purchases,” hetold reportersaboard Air Force One on Nov. 14, adding that those purchases could start before spring.
Brokerage AgResource Co. said importers in China have purchased seven to 10 cargoes from the U.S., some for shipping in January and others set for June or later.
Soybeans have been a flashpoint in trade tensions between the U.S. and China, the world’s largest importer of the oilseed. China has held off buying U.S. soybeans for much of the season, squeezing American growers and giving Beijing a key bargaining chip during tariff negotiations.
The Trump administration had said Beijing agreed to buy at least12 million tonsof U.S. soybeans this season — a deal that is considered crucial for American farmers struggling with inflation and high input costs. However, the latest Department of Agriculture export numbers through Nov. 12 showed that so far, only 232,000 tons were destined for China out of a total 1.2 million in soybean sales.
That’s down from the 332,000 tons the USDA had said last week was headed for China, as the agency corrected its data Nov. 17 to reflect a cancellation of 100,000 tons. The USDA on Nov. 14 cut its forecast for American soybean exports and output in its first supply-and-demand update since September.
The lack of significant buying from China has weighed on the markets, and traders and farmers have grown anxious as Beijing has yet to confirm specifics of the trade deal.
“Prices have turned back higher this morning after President Trump said China purchases of U.S. beans are likely before spring and talks regarding purchases are ongoing,” the Hightower Report said in a note.
The president’s comments were echoed by his staff, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins saying on Fox Business that China has “begun to buy a little” and she sees things “moving forward.”
“We’ll get there,” Rollins said. “We’re going to get that deal signed — it’s not even signed yet — and then we’re off to the races.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Nov. 16 interview on Fox that he is confident China will hold up its end of the deal. “They’ve already started the purchases of soybeans,” he said. “Prices of soybeans are way up since the meeting in Korea, and I think they will honor this.”
However, there’s a potential downside to the price rebound. The rally has pushed U.S. soybean futures back above Brazil’s prices, making American beans less competitive for low-cost buyers.
“China’s buying of U.S. soybeans is for political purposes, and the CBOT rally will push non-China business to Brazil,” AgResource said in a note.
Meanwhile, as traders await more exports, domestic processing is helping to pick up the slack with crushing hitting a record in October, according to National Oilseed Processors Association data Nov. 17.
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