EV Sales Surged 21% as Buyers Raced to Nab Tax Credit
$7,500 Tax Credit Ended Sept. 30
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Carmakers saw a surge in new electric vehicle sales this past quarter, giving the industry a boost despite ongoing uncertainty from President Donald Trump’s shifting trade policies.
Shoppers rushed to take advantage of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit that expired Sept. 30, pushing up sales of pure battery-electric vehicles 21% from the prior-year period to a record 10% of overall deliveries, according to estimates from researcher Cox Automotive.
That momentum prompted Cox to bump up its forecast for the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales to 16.1 million vehicles after a more modest upward revision in June to 15.7 million.
Automakers whipsawed by policy changes have been dialing back EV production and rejiggering product plans to add more gas and hybrid models. That dynamic created a buyers’ market for EVs as manufacturers rushed to sell down inventory, and an interest-rate cut helped some shoppers shrug off lingering affordability concerns.
“It’s last call at the bar, everyone is stepping up and ordering,” said Tyson Jominy, vice president of data and analytics for JD Power, which expects sales of about 16.1 million new vehicles this year. “If we weren’t having this experience in EVs right now, we might be asking, ‘Why are sales so sluggish on the combustion engine side?’ It’s perhaps masking a bit of weakness.”
Trump campaigned on rolling back many of former President Joe Biden’s EV-friendly policies, such as environmental regulations and the federal tax credit, and Congress followed through in July with a major tax-and-spending bill. As a result, 2026 will mark the first time in nearly 15 years that the federal government will not subsidize new EV purchases.
Most industry observers forecast a slowdown in EV sales in the coming quarters, as without the federal incentives they are still more expensive than gas-powered cars. EV average transaction prices rose in August to about $9,000 more than prices on conventional models.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if EV sales in the U.S. go down to 5%,” Ford Motor Co. CEO Jim Farley said Sept. 30 in a speech in Detroit. The EV market will be “way smaller than we thought.”
Some EV proponents had looked to states including California to step in and replace the expiring federal EV tax credits. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, dashed those hopes with a Sept. 19 announcement that his state won’t replace the expiring $7,500 federal EV tax credit.
Tesla Inc.’s Model Y and 3, the Honda Prologue, Chevrolet Equinox, Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Ford Mustang Mach-e were among the biggest beneficiaries of the EV surge in the first two months of the quarter, according to Cox. Ford, General Motors Co., Toyota Motor Co. and Hyundai Motor Co. continued to gain total market share in the period while Stellantis NV, owner of the Jeep, Ram, Dodge and Chrysler brands suffered small declines.
Many Chevy and Ford dealers’ websites have had a clock counting down to the second when the federal tax credit ends.
Rob Miles, a banker from Denver and a lifelong car enthusiast, said he’d been wanting to buy the electric Mustang Mach-e since it came out. The timing was finally right to get one in July.
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The federal incentive and “the rebates that Ford was offering were extremely intriguing,” Miles said.
Beyond the incentive grab, there’s a sense of urgency among some shoppers that prices will go up on 2026 models as carmakers look to recoup some of the cost of the new tariff burden. Based on the trade agreements Trump announced this summer, Cox estimates the U.S. government will collect roughly $100 billion in tariffs on imported autos, parts and materials this year. That could add an extra $5,500 to the cost of an imported vehicle, and $1,000 on U.S.-assembled vehicles with imported components, according to Cox’s chief economist Jonathan Smoke.
Rather than jolt buyers with sticker shock, automakers have been eating some of the costs themselves while spreading the rest across their lineups. But new vehicles coming out for 2026 are already starting to show markups, said Carlos Hidalgo, who owns two Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep Ram stores and a Hyundai store in California. Now, he’s fretting that he will have trouble making up the lost EV volume.
“We had the rush with the electric stuff and the plug-in stuff, but that goes away, so we gotta figure out what we’re gonna do next,” said Hidalgo, who’s still waiting for the new hybrid Jeep Cherokee and new Grand Cherokee models to arrive at his stores.
Uncertainty around tariff costs is poised to spike again as the Trump administration looks to renegotiate the terms of its trading pact with Mexico and Canada next year. Regardless of where the levies ultimately land, manufacturers will feel it in their cost structures and look for other ways to cope beyond raising prices, such as stripping out features or revising trim levels, said Erin Keating, an executive analyst with Cox.
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“Some add features but eliminate lower trims, shrinking the range of affordable options and pushing buyers toward more expensive models,” Keating said.
Still, there are positive drivers for the economy too, according to researcher Edmunds.com. Interest-rate cuts and deregulation are giving companies some flexibility on costs, and a strong stock market is giving people the confidence to buy, especially those who can afford a new car in the first place.
“We’re seeing more consumers return to the market with aging trade-ins, which is a strong signal that there’s still real pent-up demand,” said Jessica Caldwell, head of insights for Edmunds.
