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Georgia Ports Authority

As much as 10% of container traffic from Asia could shift from to East Coast from West Coast ports by 2020 after the Panama Canal’s expansion next year, according to a new study.

The report, “Wide Open: How the Panama Canal Is Redrawing the Logistics Map,” said the canal’s $5 billion expansion will permanently alter the competitive balance between ports on the East and West coasts.

“With global container flows rising, West Coast ports will still handle more traffic than they do today, but they will experience lower growth rates and their market share will likely fall,” said the study, which was written by the Boston Consulting Group and logistics firm C.H. Robinson Worldwide.

The firms “had a mutual interest to create a higher level of awareness to the possible impact of the Panama Canal expansion,” said Steve Raetz, C.H. Robinson’s director of research and market intelligence.

“With C.H. Robinson’s global market presence, access to numerous parties in the supply chain and significant experience in the Trans-Pacific Eastbound trade lane, we were able to offer market and experiential insights, as well as shipper interviews, to the project,” he told Transport Topics.

Last year, about 35% of container traffic from Asia arrived at East Coast ports, but the report said growth trends would push that share to 40% by 2020 even without the canal expansion.

With the expansion in place, the East Coast’s share could reach 50%, the study said, though growth could vary based on energy prices, canal tolls, infrastructure investments and economic conditions, the study said.