Americans Grow More Uneasy About Job Market, Economy
Inflation, Politics, Slower Hiring Weigh on Consumer Confidence
Key Takeaways:
- U.S. consumer confidence fell for a third straight month in October to 94.6, its lowest level since April, according to the Conference Board.
- The decline reflected weaker expectations for the economy and labor market as inflation, slower job growth and tariff uncertainty weighed on sentiment.
- Policymakers face limited data during a government shutdown, and Federal Reserve officials are expected to cut interest rates Oct. 29 to support growth.
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U.S. consumer confidence fell in October for a third straight month on dimmer views about the outlook for the economy and labor market.
The Conference Board’s gauge decreased 1 point to 94.6, the lowest since April, data out Oct. 28 showed. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 93.4.
A measure of expectations for the next six months fell in October to 71.5, the lowest since June, while a metric of present conditions increased.
Confidence remains stuck below levels seen last year as consumers fret about the labor market and the cost of living. Job growth has significantly slowed, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target and President Donald Trump’s tariff policies continue to drive heightened economic uncertainty.
The share of consumers that said jobs were currently hard to get edged up to 18.4%. At the same time, the share saying jobs were plentiful increased to 27.8%.
The difference between these two — a metric closely followed by economists to gauge the job market — widened slightly.
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Expectations for the job market, however, weakened. A greater share of consumers expect fewer available jobs in the next six months, and their outlook on income prospects were less positive.
While consumers’ perceived odds of a recession in the next year declined, more thought a downturn had already started.
“Consumers’ write-in responses were led by references to prices and inflation, which continued to be the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at the Conference Board, said in a statement. “References to U.S. politics were up notably, with the ongoing government shutdown mentioned multiple times as a key concern.”
(Bloomberg)
The ongoing government shutdown has left policymakers withoutmajor dataat a crucial time for the economy. Despite the lack of updated official figures, Fed officials are expected to lower interest rates Oct. 29 by a quarter percentage point for a second straight meeting in an effort to bolster the job market.
Despite underlying consumer anxiety, household spending was solid in the second quarter, and the most-recent retail sales data indicate that resilience extended into July and August.
The Conference Board’s report showed buying plans for big-ticket items like homes, cars and appliances were generally muted. Vacation plans, however, picked up.
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